The biggest prize awaits the victors at the MCG this weekend! Will it be a fairytale comeback for Nathan Buckley and the Pies or can the Eagles defy the odds and be the first interstate team to win since the Swans in 2012?
As always contested ball will be key in this one. Unsurprisingly, both these sides are ranked 1 and 2 in this statistic for the final series. They have met twice this year, most recently the Eagles defeated the Pies by 16 points in a thriller at Optus Stadium in the Qualifying Final after being down by 10 at 3/4 time. Round 17 was a much more one sided affair where the Eagles disposed of the Pies by 33 points. Incidentally this was the game where superstar West Coast ruckman suffered his season ending ACL injury. Collingwood will take a lot of confidence out of coming so close to their opponents on the other side of the country in their most recent clash.
What Needs to Happen:
Collingwood
Collingwood shocked the AFL world with their demolition of raging competiton favourites Richmond last week and it came on the back of ferocious pressure. Never before have we seen the Tigers fumble the ball so much. It wasn’t just isolated to around the ball. Players receiving the ball from rushed handballs were often the ones that coughed up the pill and this will be just as important against West Coast, who love to make the field big by spreading the ball by foot via lateral kicking. If their opposition are given time to hit up their potent forward then it may spell danger. To counter West Coast’s ability to use width, Collingwood need to ensure they have defenders ready both in the corridor of the ground and on the fat side. Although it may seem unusual, they must encourage and force the Eagles to kick straight down the line where they will have competent defenders waiting.
West Coast
American basketball convert Mason Cox had a career game for the Pies last week. If he can reproduce the Eagles are in trouble. They can learn from Richmond’s mistakes last week and body the 6’10 beast up. Collingwood perfected the strategy of chipping the ball into space in front of him last week and the competitions best defender, Alex Race, looked useless. This was mainly due to the fact that he tried to play a 1m or 2 off him in order to jump in from the side. It didn’t work and the Eagles defenders must body him up. The Eagles midfield must win the hard stuff and remained composed enough to work the ball into space via hand and give their potent forward the service Collingwood’s defence won’t be able to contain.
The Verdict
Both these sides couldn’t of been more impressive in their Preliminary Final wins last week. The test for the Eagles will be bringing it across to Nullarbor where they will have their backs against the wall combating a crowd that will be against them.
If Collingwood can repeat the phenomenal pressure and attack on the ball they produced last week against the season’s best team then they will be hard to beat.
We are expecting the pressure to be right on in the opening half here but the Eagles ability to run, spread and use the expansions of the MCG to give them the slight edge.
Tip
Eagles by 9
Value Bet
Multi- West Coast win/Luke Shuey Norm Smith Medalist @22
