WFA Group 1 Moir Stakes Preview & Analysis
6 years ago - Sportingbase
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Track Conditions
- Good 4
- Rail: True
Distance
- 1000m
Track Bias
- Track should play relatively even dependant on individual race pace, those settling midfield and back will be able to take off early on the bend and figure in the finish.
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Early Speed
- Very Fast
There is a heap of early pace here over the 1000m, Ball Of Muscle (3) should find the front if he jumps cleanly but there will be early pressure from Nature Strip (1), Faatinah (15), Assertive Approach (14) & Eduardo (2).
Top Pick
Godolphin trained 2. Trekking runs well fresh and looks ready to fly first up here off two solid trials including the latest over 894m at Rosehill where he sat back and showed a nice turn of foot late under no riding cruising to the line. The 1000m is short of his best distance but with the predicted fast early pace engaged Kerrin McEvoy will be able to settle back, let things unfold up front and be flashing home late and at the $6.50 appeals in current markets.
Danger
The Joe Pride trained 1. Ball Of Muscle ran well over 1100m at Caulfield last start taking up the running and getting run down late, will take a heap of improvement from that effort and back to 1000m looks ideal. The gelding has run well second up over his career recording 4 wins and with the drop in distance I’m predicting Glyn Schofield will be told to be aggressive from barrier 3 and try to cross Nature Strip who draws the inside, this horse loves a fight late.
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Lay
Taking on the Chris Waller trained 5. Nature Strip off a disappointing effort behind Redzel over 1000m at Randwick, jockey James Mcdonald was instructed to take a sit on the speedster and that was his undoing. The main issue I have is the indide draw, if Ball Of Muscle is able to cross early he will get stuck in behind the speed once again and potentially over race, at the current market price of $2.90 I’m happy to take it on.
Betting Strategy
Back Trekking (1 Unit Win Bet) Back Ball Of Muscle (0.5 Unit Win Bet) Lay Nature Strip ($3.00 and below)
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