Victorian Derby: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order
4 months ago - Sportingbase
The Victoria Derby is a real staying showdown — 2500m of grit, class, and pressure. A strong tempo guarantees a true test, and we’ve locked in a Best Bet and Value Play you’ll want to see before they jump.
Our experts have crunched the data, mapped every scenario, and pinpointed which runners are ready to peak on the big stage. Don’t miss our best bet, and value selections at the bottom — they could be the key to unlocking a serious collect this weekend.
1. Observer — 57kg — Barrier 4
Why he can win
He bossed the Vase after making his own luck and was luckless in the Guineas. He relaxes, quickens, and maps perfectly from gate 4 with Zahra aboard.
Why he can’t win
Unseen at Flemington 2500m and could be a sitting shot if he’s forced to lead again into a solid tempo.
Summary: He’s the benchmark and gets every favour — predicted 1st. – Bet Here
2. Highvol — 57kg — Barrier 15
Why he can win
Rock-hard fit and loves Flemington; brave on-speed in the Geelong Classic.
Why he can’t win
Gate 15 risks a wide trip or early burn, and his Guineas run showed he can paddle if pressured.
Summary: Tough on his day but map is tricky — predicted 8th. – Bet Here
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3. Autumn Mystery — 57kg — Barrier 17
Why he can win
Flying this prep — powered home to win the Derby Preview and then nailed a G3 2000m despite traffic. Looks made for 2500m.
Why he can’t win
Awkward draw could see him spotting a big start again.
Summary: Booming closer who will love the trip — predicted 2nd. – Bet Here
4. Miewa — 57kg — Barrier 8
Why he can win
Honest, strong through the line in the Preview and Classic; keeps finding when others stop.
Why he can’t win
Can be keen early and needs luck weaving through late.
Summary: Rock-solid stayer with a soft map — predicted 3rd. – Bet Here
5. Options — 57kg — Barrier 7
Why he can win
Three wins from five and classy through the spring. Beat Miewa in the Super Impose and had excuses in the Vase.
Why he can’t win
Still learning, can be slow away and cluttered up.
Summary: Classy Godolphin colt who can win with the right run — predicted 4th. – Bet Here
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6. Providence — 57kg — Barrier 12
Why he can win
Charged from last for 2nd in the Vase; late splits scream 2500m.
Why he can’t win
Still a maiden and needs a tempo to suit.
Summary: Big closer who’ll relish the distance — predicted 5th. – Bet Here
7. Azazel — 57kg — Barrier 10
Why he can win
Tough and progressive; nailed the Geelong Classic with grit.
Why he can’t win
Form out of that race a touch below the A-grade line.
Summary: Honest grinder who stays all day — predicted 6th. – Bet Here
8. Arcora — 57kg — Barrier 11
Why he can win
Luckless of late and strong 1800m win earlier this prep.
Why he can’t win
Hasn’t put it together in better grade yet.
Summary: Sneaky place chance at odds — predicted 12th. – Bet Here
9. O’Sheamus — 57kg — Barrier 5
Why he can win
Finished well for 3rd in the Vase and peaking at the right time.
Why he can’t win
Still a bit raw and new to the trip.
Summary: Maps sweetly and can run top half — predicted 7th. – Bet Here
10. Amazake — 57kg — Barrier 6
Why he can win
Game on-speed in the Classic and keeps sticking.
Why he can’t win
Still a maiden and may feel the pinch late.
Summary: Honest effort likely, but others stronger — predicted 13th. – Bet Here
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11. Engine Of War — 57kg — Barrier 9
Why he can win
Desperate for ground; strong 2nd in the Preview and gets blinkers on.
Why he can’t win
Can be one-paced and needs things to go his way.
Summary: Grinder who can outstay a few — predicted 9th. – Bet Here
12. Matsuda — 57kg — Barrier 19
Why he can win
Tough on-pacer who just missed in the Classic.
Why he can’t win
Horror draw means a tough trip up front.
Summary: Wide alley hurts; fringe player — predicted 14th. – Bet Here
13. One Step Closer — 57kg — Barrier 2
Why he can win
Rails draw, improving, and stuck on well in the Vase.
Why he can’t win
Class test and stamina query.
Summary: Soft map gives him every chance — predicted 11th. – Bet Here
14. Savisanta — 57kg — Barrier 3
Why he can win
Ultra-consistent and found the line well at Geelong; good low draw.
Why he can’t win
Still a maiden and steps up in depth.
Summary: Can sneak into the placings — predicted 10th. – Bet Here
15. Mcwoody — 57kg — Barrier 16
Why he can win
Lightly raced improver; hit the line well at Caulfield.
Why he can’t win
Awkward map and trip query.
Summary: One for next prep — predicted 15th. – Bet Here
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16. Deal Done Fast — 57kg — Barrier 1
Why he can win
Strong late splits in the Classic; soft rails run helps.
Why he can’t win
Still learning and may get buried back on the fence.
Summary: Knockout place hope if gaps appear — predicted 16th. – Bet Here
Best Bet
Observer — he’s the standout stayer who maps perfectly, relaxes beautifully, and owns the best form heading in. Everything about his prep screams Derby-ready. – Bet Here
Value
Providence — he’s been screaming for more ground and will relish 2500m. Still a maiden, but his Vase run says he’ll be flying late at double-figure odds. – Bet Here
CHANCES ARE YOU’RE ABOUT TO LOSE.
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