Horse Racing Tips

Russell Balding Stakes: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order

4 months ago - Sportingbase

A deep, evenly matched field with plenty of early pressure makes this a fascinating contest. We’ve broken down every runner’s chances to help you find the winner — and make sure to check out our Best Bet and Value selections at the bottom for the key plays of the race.

Our experts have crunched the data, mapped every scenario, and pinpointed which runners are ready to peak on the big stage. Don’t miss our best bet, and value selections at the bottom — they could be the key to unlocking a serious collect this weekend.

1. Briasa — 58.5kg — Maps midfield/one-off, stalking the speed

Why they can win

Everest run was brave after a wide, brutal tempo; prior G2 win stamped him. Perfect 1100–1200 profile, thrives at Randwick, and Schiller knows every button.

Why they can’t win

If the fence is gold or they dawdle midrace, he may be forced to circle and give sharp rivals first run.

Predicted finish: 2nd – Bet Here

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2. Jimmysstar — 58.5kg — Maps midfield-with-cover, peeling late

Why they can win

Rock-solid in the Everest off a tough run and wide no-cover prior. Genuine Group 1 horse with elite last 600m figures when parked off hot speed—exactly today’s setup.

Why they can’t win

Can be at the mercy of traffic. If they crawl midrace, his sprint can be blunted.

Predicted finish: 1st – Bet Here

3. War Machine — 58.5kg — Maps handy, one-out/one-back

Why they can win

Stradbroke hero then explosive first-up in the Gilgai. Versatile and tough; draws to land the perfect toe behind the leaders.

Why they can’t win

Everest was inconclusive but still a knock. If the inside chops out late, his lane could be the wrong one.

Predicted finish: 4th – Bet Here

4. Private Eye — 57.5kg — Maps on-pace/outside leader

Why they can win

Vintage form this prep at 1400 and bulletproof at this level. Brings genuine weight-for-age power and race craft.

Why they can’t win

Back to 1200 against specialist sprinters—if they dash late, he might feel it over the final 50m.

Predicted finish: 6th – Bet Here

5. Rothfire — 57.5kg — Maps prominent, can lead/park

Why they can win

Sydney Stakes winner last time—class rose to the top. Tough as teak when he lands the right spot and controls his effort.

Why they can’t win

Pressure map is spicy; if harassed by multiple speed horses, he’s vulnerable the last 100m.

Predicted finish: 5th – Bet Here

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6. Iowna Merc — 57.5kg — Maps midfield/just worse, rails

Why they can win

Randwick specialist; excellent second in the Sydney Stakes shows he’s right on song. Parr back aboard is a plus.

Why they can’t win

Needs the race to break open. If he’s buried back to the inside, gaps might not come.

Predicted finish: 8th – Bet Here

7. Strauss — 57.5kg — Maps back and wide from the alley

Why they can win

Japanese form line adds intrigue and often measures up; capable of a sharp turn of foot at his best.

Why they can’t win

Gate + unfamiliar conditions + depth spike. Big ask first look here at 1200.

Predicted finish: 15th – Bet Here

8. Waterford — 57.5kg — Maps midfield the fence

Why they can win

Classy 1500m animal with a sneaky turn of foot; if they overcook it up front, he can chime in late at odds.

Why they can’t win

0/9 at Randwick is a hoodoo; 1200 may be too sharp against pure sprinters.

Predicted finish: 14th – Bet Here

9. Golden Mile — 57.5kg — Maps on-pace/box seat

Why they can win

G1-placed last prep at 1300; talent isn’t the issue. Positive map can gift him every chance.

Why they can’t win

Fitness query off a plain return (and coughing noted). Needs a new peak to trouble these.

Predicted finish: 11th – Bet Here

10. Jedibeel — 57.5kg — Maps back half, off-speed

Why they can win

Fast late splits when the race collapses; carries less hype than others and can outrun odds.

Why they can’t win

Winless this prep and jumps from Everest company without a knockout sign. Needs a melt-up.

Predicted finish: 12th – Bet Here

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11. Airman — 57.5kg — Maps midfield/three-wide line

Why they can win

Honest, strong late splits this prep; forgiving run styles suit a high-pressure 1200 at Randwick.

Why they can’t win

Hasn’t landed a blow at this grade lately and the gate can force extra work.

Predicted finish: 10th – Bet Here

12. Lady Shenandoah — 56.5kg — Maps midfield two-wide, stalking

Why they can win

Triple G1 winner who arguably should’ve won fresh; Everest run full of merit. Loves Randwick and screams ready.

Why they can’t win

Some will say 1400 is her sweet spot now; if they dash brutally from the 400, she might need one more bound.

Predicted finish: 3rd – Bet Here

13. Mazu — 56.5kg — Maps leader/first pair

Why they can win

Brings pace and bravery; if the track leans to leaders or there’s some give, he sticks a long way.

Why they can’t win

Recent pattern: peaks then fades late at 1200 on firm. Pressure looks hotter than a jalapeño.

Predicted finish: 9th – Bet Here

14. With Your Blessing — 56.5kg — Maps leader/outside leader

Why they can win

Flying this prep with a G3 win and huge Sydney Stakes placing despite tough runs. Controls races when left alone.

Why they can’t win

Won’t be left alone here. If he’s forced to work, the last 75m could feel like climbing Mt. Kosciuszko.

Predicted finish: 7th – Bet Here

15. Coal Crusher — 56kg — Maps leader/rail

Why they can win

Gave a mighty sight last time and strips fitter. Rail and roll is his game.

Why they can’t win

Plenty of company up top; if he doesn’t break their hearts midrace, they’ll swarm late.

Predicted finish: 13th – Bet Here

Summary

Genuine tempo with With Your Blessing/Coal Crusher/Rothfire/Mazu ensuring no hiding. That suits Jimmysstarand Briasa to pounce, with Lady Shenandoah humming along behind them and War Machine getting the dream trail.

Best Bet: Jimmysstar
Value Bet: With Your Blessing (maps to give a huge sight at double figures)