Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 8/4

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Pre Break:

79.28 Units Profit
20.32% ROI

Post Break:

11.7 Units Loss
-13.11% ROI
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Timberwolves vs Pacers 9:10am AEST

Have to have a bit on him here. Foul trouble has plagued him playing just 20 minutes against Memphis and 19 minutes against the Kings but I think that’s given us some good prices here as I have him back in the mid 30s today as they just need his defence. Have written him up previously but he should continue to get great looks in this offence as long as he’s playing next to Towns and he has a very quick trigger currently. The Pacers all season haven’t really given up many 3’s as their perimeter guys usually stay attached to shooters funnelling them into Turner, but without Turner today we may see them leave their man a little more. Not convinced this will be the case, as Goga is a decent rim protector and teams obviously try to avoid fundamentally changing their defensive philosophies as much as possible so just a smaller bet.

Jaden McDaniels over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Jaden McDaniels over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Thunder vs Hornets 10:10am AEST

A big part of my process over the years has been backing guys on teams I think will win as they just generate a ton more stats across the board so obviously in a blow out loss like the Hornets faced last game where they only scored 86 points the box score isn’t going to be pretty. We haven’t really seen how this rotation is fully going to shake out with 2 blowouts in a row, but Terry has averaged 20 first half minutes across the two games so we can assume he’s going to play somewhere around 40 moving forward and they’ve had a few days off so he should be more than ready to go. I was looking to key in on Devonte today but when I was digging I found it very interesting that it’s Terry who has been taking the touch time leading the team at 5.5 minutes (Devonte 4.6) over the last 2 games and he was right up at 12 drives last game with the next highest on the team 6. They need him to initiate the offence and he gets a cupcake of a matchup here against OKC and their 118.7 D rating over the last 2 weeks. Daigneault also mentioned he wants them to play at a faster pace which is obviously even better for Terry. We’ve got a 107 minute sample of Terry without the others and he’s put up 26.2/6.0/3.7 per 36 which gets him there but he’s I think he’s got some extra assist upside and should play closer to 40 here which gives him a bit of extra time to get stats. He’s covered this in 5 of his last 6 games (8 in other in 26 minutes blowout L) but he’s right up at 12.2 RA per 40 over that stretch.

Terry Rozier over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Move to centre might be just what he needs to get going here. He’s been way more productive at centre this season getting a 3.9% usage bump without the centres (+ Hayward) putting up an awesome 18.5/8.1/2.6 per 36. As mentioned above this is an awesome matchup but he really just hasn’t been good lately so can’t have too much on.

P.J Washington over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
P.J Washington over 19.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 1.8 units out

Jaden McDaniels over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Jaden McDaniels over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Terry Rozier over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
P.J Washington over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
P.J Washington over 19.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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