Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 29/6

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

101.60 Units Profit
15.8% ROI

View Results Spreadsheets

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Hey guys, with the season coming to an end and the volume of bets really decreasing, have decided to switch the payments off for the rest of the season. Will still be putting bets up through the website here, and hopefully the app which will send push notifications when launched. Been a pretty wild season with the hot start leading to the big MPJ day, quickly followed by which was easily the worst stretch I’ve ever had. Have given a little bit back over the last week or so with some close ones going against us but it was nice to be able to get back to a peak for the season a couple of weeks ago. Still going to be grinding it out and hopefully can finish the season off strong. Feel free to hit my DMs on twitter if any questions!

Suns vs Clippers

I’m buying the extended minutes last game. Doing such a good job on PG that it wouldn’t really make much sense to take him off him at this point. These teams shot the ball historically bad last game which obviously creates a ton of rebounding opportunities both ways so we’re looking at some inflated numbers, but the defences are both really making it tough right now so although they’ll likely both shoot better, I’m not expecting a high scoring affair (neither is Vegas at 211). He’s covered this in his last 3, averaging 8.0 in just 33.4 minutes.

Mikal Bridges over 4.5 Rebounds @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
Mikal Bridges over 7.5 Rebounds @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Mikal Bridges over 9.5 Rebounds @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Once again just left so much on the table last game. Pretty stiff neither of our bets were able to get up but happy to go again here as the role is just so good. He had 19 potentials now averaging 18.5 over the two games, 32!! drives to follow up from the 23 in G3 (for reference, Luka averaged 22.4 for the playoffs), and his touch time went up even further at 11.3 minutes. Clippers are going to be forced to go with a switching scheme here with no Zubac which means it might be a bit harder for CP to get to that open shot at the elbow, but he’s going to play big minutes and this line is just so low for his role.

Chris Paul over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units

He is ice cold right now so once again only small bet, but the odds just keep creeping up and are way too good to pass up on with a few things lining up for him today. He looked far healthier last game, moving much better and he didn’t have a sleeve on his leg anymore which is a positive. With Zubac playing 40 minutes, Morris got squeezed only playing 22 but they are going to need his size in the front-court today. Instead of just standing in the corner, they are going to use him as the screener which should get him much more involved in more offensive possessions. Going back to the regular season, he averaging 19.5 points per 36 with no centre on the court and no Kawhi. Has 40 minute upside today.

Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Batum is by far the biggest winner from Zubac not playing. There has been a direct correlation between their playing times and with Batum very rested here I fully expect him to get right back up to mid 30s. He’s averaging 19.2 PRA per 36 for the playoffs, and 17.3 PRA per 36 for the series. I would have to assume he gets the start here and this line will likely get bumped.

Nicolas Batum over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
Nicolas Batum over 9.5 Rebounds @ 12.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 3.9 units out

Mikal Bridges over 4.5 Rebounds @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
Mikal Bridges over 7.5 Rebounds @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Mikal Bridges over 9.5 Rebounds @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Chris Paul over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Nicolas Batum over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
Nicolas Batum over 9.5 Rebounds @ 12.00 with B365 – 0.1 units