Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 29/3

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Pre Break:

79.28 Units Profit
20.32% ROI

Post Break:

2.95 Units Loss
-6.35% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

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Blazers vs Raptors 10:10am AEST

Kanter has been in beast mode the last few games and was a huge part of the comeback win against Miami as well as having a big hand in the win against the Blazers. He’s had 3 straight 15/15 games including last game where he still managed to get up to 29 minutes despite the return of Nurkic. Nurkic only played 20 minutes there, and he is limited to the same amount today so we’re getting a nice price line as he averages 12.3/11.8 in 26.8 minutes on the season, which is just under where I have him projected for today (28/20 split with Nurk). It is a very good matchup as Raptors have allowed top 10 points to centres & 6th most rebounds to centres over the last month.

Enes Kanter over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
Enes Kanter over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Blazers are finally healthy and with Powell now in Portland, DJJ will be coming off the bench which is going to create a bit of a minutes crunch at the forward spots and I think it will likely be Melo who takes the biggest hit. This team just has so much offence now with Dame, CJ & Powell it makes much more sense to see more Covington/DJJ. It had already been tough at times for Stotts to find minutes for their forwards, so he got creative and ran the Melo/Covington front-court a ton but with Nurkic back and Kanter playing so well, I think we’ll likely see 48 minutes between them. Unless he’s scorching hot in which case we’d be toast anyway, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he’ll be in the closing line-up. Will likely have either Pascal or OG on him the majority of his minutes.

Carmelo Anthony UNDER 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Freddy is set for a huge night here with Lowry out in an awesome matchup. We’ve got a large sample of the Raptors without Lowry and Powell on the court this season and it’s Freddy who is by far the biggest beneficiary with an 8.6% usage bump right up to 33.1% which makes this number look extremely low. He’s been super productive in that time with 28.1 points per 36 on very sustainable shooting at just 42% from the field and 36% from behind the arc. The matchup is great against the Blazers who have now lost their best defensive guard in Trent and have the 30th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks. Got a ton of upside here in a game that has a 229 total and a 2 point spread.

Fred VanVleet over 21.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
Fred VanVleet over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 3.4 units out

Enes Kanter over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
Enes Kanter over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
Carmelo Anthony UNDER 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
Fred VanVleet over 21.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
Fred VanVleet over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
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