Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 28/5

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

89.16 Units Profit
16.75% ROI

View Results Spreadsheets

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Bucks vs Heat 9:30am AEST

Wanted to sleep on this one but I just think the market has these teams wrong. It’s such a clear mismatch as the Bucks have been able to take away everything Miami’s two studs like to do which has resulted in a paltry 85.1 O rating in the half court. In saying that, the Heat have done a good job defensively in the half court limiting the Bucks to a 91 O rating which isn’t great either, but Bucks are killing them in other ways. Their size is just too much to handle as they have a 60.9 total rebound %, with a whopping 34.3 offensive rebound %. Both teams may struggle in the half-court again (still an edge to Bucks), but with the extra possessions there’s just such a clear overall edge to the Bucks. Dragic surely has to come into the starting lineup here as the Bucks starters have a stupid +25.2 net rating. Think we have to see some more Dedmon also as Ariza’s just doesn’t have enough size. If this Bucks team gets rolling it’ll likely be off the back of some hot 3 point shooting and Jrue has done an awesome job setting them up so far. He got lucky with 15 dimes from 19 potentials, but 19 is a big number and there’s a bit of value in a little same gamer here.

Milwaukee Bucks -1 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
Milwaukee Bucks 11+ / Jrue Holiday 10+ Assists @ 15.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Just been trying to go over what adjustments Spo to make to try limit some of these paint points, and it really feels like their only option is to help off of Lopez as everyone else on the court is just so damaging. He could be in line for a big game.

Lakers vs Suns 12:10pm AEST

Huge role change for AD between G1 and G2. All the important stats got a really nice bump as they were running so much through him offensively. Went from 36 to 56 front court touches, 4 to 7 elbow touches, 41 to 53 passes made and 7 potential assists up to 13. Got a little lucky last time out with the 7 assists but this line is just too low to pass up. Averaged 3.8 dimes per 40 minutes (which he should play here), both seasons with the Lakers, and 3.8 per 40 last season in the playoffs. With Bron seemingly a bit limited they need to go through AD more often so expecting them to continue to here.

Anthony Davis over 2.5 Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
Anthony Davis over 5.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Nuggets vs Blazers 12:40pm AEST

Love the spot for Monte here. Everything is trending up, and they really really need him. 10,17,17,21,29 is his minute log over the last 5 games, and I have a hard time seeing him not play above 30 here, with an assumption of 32 and upside of 35. Can only go off a small sample here, as he missed such a large chunk of time while Jamal was hurt, but over the last 3 games of the regular season when he returned he put up 0.83 PRA per minute. He’s carried that over to the playoffs with 0.72 PRA per minute in the 2 games so far. 24 minutes at that rate gets him there comfortably. We have a decent 187 minute sample for the regular season with Jokic ON and both Jamal/Barton OFF and Monte has a stellar 15.9/3.8/5.0 per 36 line. Led the team with 5.6 minutes of touch time last game. Setting up nicely for a big game against this poor Blazers D.

Monte Morris over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.3 units
Monte Morris over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 3.8 units out

Milwaukee Bucks -1 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
Milwaukee Bucks 11+ / Jrue Holiday 10+ Assists @ 15.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Anthony Davis over 2.5 Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
Anthony Davis over 5.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Monte Morris over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.3 units
Monte Morris over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units