Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 27/4

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

89.16 Units Profit
16.75% ROI

View Results Spreadsheets

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76ers vs Thunder 9:10am AEST

Seems way to high here for the Thunder. Their offence is an absolute disaster right now, with the 30th ranked offence over the last 2 weeks at an awful 103.9 rating. Could be rough going for them today without Dort coming up against this phenomenal Sixers D who are as healthy as they’ve been in a while.

Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 102.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 93.5 Points @ 4.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Both Score 80+ NO @ 51.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 unit

Raptors vs Cavs 9:40am AEST

He has only played 3 games this entire month for various reasons, but in the 3 games he’s played he’s covered this with tallies of 13,12,16. He’s playing big minutes with 35 the lowest in those 3 games and gets a really nice matchup against the really short-handed and struggling Cavs. Over his last 2 games the potentials have really spiked, up at 15.7 per game and he’s playing a bit more on ball now with 5.6 minutes of touch time (FVV 4.5), compared to FVV 5.7 and Lowry 5.1 for the season. Role is as good as it’s been all year for him and the Raptors really need to be winning this one. Wouldn’t take the 12.5 that is being shown elsewhere.

Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Clippers vs Pelicans 10:40am AEST

I don’t often do this, but the way these two teams play is just so conducive to a bet of this nature. PG is going to do the heavy lifting on offence for the Clippers and it’s an awesome matchup for him. Morris is also going to busy and with the Pelicans allowing so many 3 point attempts he could have a big night from deep. On the other side, Zion has scored 25+ in 14 of his last 15 games he’s played 30+ minutes while Ingram has been chugging along with 24+ in 7 of his last 8, averaging 27.8 per. Lonzo is shooting the ball much better and should be set for 30+ minutes coming off 6 triples in 34. Game should stay close so all these guys should get their full compliment of minutes in a nice game environment.

Paul George 25+ Points, Zion 25+ Points, Ingram 20+ Points, Morris 15+ Points, Lonzo 2+ 3’s @ 4.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.7 units
Marcus Morris First Basket @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Kings vs Mavericks 12:10pm AEST

Oh man the role was honestly as good as it possibly good be in that game yesterday against the Warriors. Has essentially just stepped exactly into Fox’s role and is set for a huge couple of weeks while Fox recovers from what it sounds like was a positive COVID test. Unfortunately there isn’t any tracking data for the game yesterday (would have been off the charts) but was watching very closely and this line is just too low for the role right now. Walton said he wants him to be extra aggressive, the term he used was “gunslinger.” Mavs D has improved but the opportunity is just too much to pass on. Has actually seen a dramatic efficiency increase in 11 b2b’s this season right up to a ridiculous 66.77% eFG. That is 98th percentile. Wild for a rookie.

Tyrese Haliburton over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.3 units
Tyrese Haliburton over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 4.8 units out

Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 102.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 93.5 Points @ 4.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Both Score 80+ NO @ 51.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 unit
Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
Paul George 25+ Points, Zion 25+ Points, Ingram 20+ Points, Morris 15+ Points, Lonzo 2+ 3’s @ 4.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.7 units
Marcus Morris First Basket @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Tyrese Haliburton over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.3 units
Tyrese Haliburton over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
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