Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/8

6 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

327 Wins / 209 Losses
+108.35 Units Of Profit
19.43% ROI

Jazz vs Nuggets 8:30am AEST

After playing just 18,16 minutes in the last two blowouts, he was a beneficiary of Malone tightening things up, getting to 35 in G4. With Royce spending the majority of his time on Murray, it’s left Ingles to guard Millsap and he came out aggressively attacking that matchup last game. With Jamal scorching, he will be Snyder’s priority so I think we could get more Ingles on Millsap again here which he really should look to dominate. Broke out of a mini slump with 16 points and managed to get up 13 shots which was good to see.

Millsap over 11.5 Points @ 1.89 with Topsport

“I expect this to be a close game, and we know exactly how these two teams will play in the last 5 minutes. Donny will take almost every shot for Utah, while it will be Jokic/Murray 2 man game on the other side. Would think the majority of points scored in this time come from those 3 which will help them hit their lines if they are in striking distance. Can get 7.00 for the points over on those 3 guys with Sportsbet.” – Wrote this before game 3 which ended up being one game early as that ended in a blowout. The close game came in game 4 and it played out exactly as expected where this bet easily cashed. I like all 3 of these individually but will likely only hit if it stays close – which I’ll get to – so limiting exposure.

Donovan over 31.5 Points + Assists / Jamal over 29.5 Points + Assists / Jokic over 24.5 Points @ 6.00 with B365 (For those that use bookies where you can’t multi the combo lines, just take them all straight points) – 0.5 units

I’m having a tough time with the player props in this series because schematically, Utah’s offence has so many different options and I’m not sure going into the game which Malone will decide to take away. In G4 we saw Jokic pretty much stay underneath the basket throughout, which stopped Rudy getting any easy buckets or offensive rebounds, but it gave Mitchell, Conley & Clarkson open short range jumpers. I assume this is what Malone will go to again as they were able to keep it close and they are lower percentage shots than dunks, but Jazz just continued to get really great looks all game. They have a ridiculous 131.1 offensive rating through the 4 games clearing this in all of them averaging 125.5 PPG. I think it’s a pretty safe bet they’ll score a bunch again here one way or another. Was going to play the -2.5 line, but Denver just showed they can hang with them, although they were really benefited by making some very tough shots and had a remarkable 17 offensive rebounds to go along with just 6 turnovers. Denver had 100 FGA to Jazz’s 73 and still weren’t able to come away with the win. Props to their effort but I think they are just outmatched here. This Denver team is highly emotional and down 3-1 so if they get behind early it wouldn’t shock seeing a repeat of games 2,3.

Jazz team total over 111.5 @ 1.89 with Topsport – 1 unit
Jazz 11+ @ 4.00 with Beteasy – 0.25 units
Jazz 21-30 @ 13.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Jazz 31+ @ 55.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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Clippers vs Mavericks 11:00am AEST

I would be shocked if Zubac doesn’t see more playing time here. He’s a great defensive presence and really makes it tough on Luka around the rim when he drives at him whereas Luka has just been going straight through Harrell. The numbers back that up as through the 4 games Zubac has a team best 104 defensive rating in 94 minutes and Harrell is at 134.6 in 72 minutes. I honestly think they should match Zu’s minutes with Lukas, at least through the first 3 quarters before playing Morris at the 5 to close it out. Luka is 14-34 (41%) for 47 points in 72 minutes with Zubac, and 29-49 (59%) for 79 points in 70 minutes without. He’s been productive in his minutes and Kawhi has really been looking for him in the paint so if he gets high 20’s could have a big night. He’s cleared this alt line in both his last 2, averaging 25 minutes but might get a little bump here.

Zubac over 16.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
Zubac over 13.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.25 units

I’m staying light here because am unsure what Doc’s guard rotations will be like as Shamet was the odd man out in G4, but I was really impressed with him in G3 where he popped for 18 points. He has 126 minutes on the court with Kawhi & PG this season with an elite eFG% at 85%. Don’t on this game as I’m not sure Mavs will be able to hang around. They need a herculean performance from Luka and all of their role players turned up to win the last one, but they are clearly outgunned and if PG turns up it could get away from them.

Shamet 15+ Points / Clippers win @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Don’t want to be overexposed on this game as I’m not sure Mavs will be able to hang around. They need a herculean performance from Luka and all of their role players turned up to win the last one, but they are clearly outgunned and if PG turns up it could get away from them early. I like Clips line and for those that play SGM taking Luka/Kawhi unders – assuming 4th quarter rest – is an option.

Staking Plan

Millsap over 11.5 Points @ 1.89 with Topsport
Donovan over 31.5 Points + Assists / Jamal over 29.5 Points + Assists / Jokic over 24.5 Points @ 6.00 with B365 – 0.5 units
Jazz team total over 111.5 @ 1.89 with Topsport – 1 unit
Jazz 11+ @ 4.00 with Beteasy – 0.2 units
Jazz 21-30 @ 13.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Jazz 31+ @ 55.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Zubac over 16.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
Zubac over 13.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.25 units
Shamet 15+ Points / Clippers win @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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