Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/5

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

89.16 Units Profit
16.75% ROI

View Results Spreadsheets

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Nets vs Celtics 9:30am AEST

Biggest takeaway from G1 for me was, surprisingly, the Nets defence. They were awesome. It’s obviously a switching system and often when guys haven’t played together there are a ton of miscommunications as it can be quite difficult to nail effectively, but with KD having a ton of experience in Golden State, Harden in Houston, and Kyrie in Boston they all seem to be on the same page. They limited Tatum to just 1 wide open shot the entire game. It was remarkable they still managed to win by double digits in a game they shot 8-34 from 3. That won’t happen again, and as long as they turn up defensively expect them to take care of business fairly comfortably here in what I’m really expecting to be a blowout.

Brooklyn Nets -8.5 @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
Brooklyn Nets -19.5 @ 4.65 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

If things are clicking for the Nets offensively, it’ll mean more transition buckets, more out of place Celtics defenders and we’ll start seeing the Nets move the ball around. Joe Harris is playing huge minutes and could be a major beneficiary if this Nets team starts rolling. Definitely think he’ll have one or two big games this series if he’s going to play 36+ minutes, and these odds are more than good enough to take a shot at.

Joe Harris over 19.5 Points @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Clippers vs Mavs 12:30pm AEST

Only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that I think Clippers are going to dominate this game, but I just can’t see us getting this line again. Biggest takeaway for me was the 36 minutes, and they really shouldn’t have come as a surprise as they love his defence on Kawhi. He was on him for 29.2 partial possessions, with the next highest being Morris at 3.3. He’s not a very productive guy, but this line is just too low for the minutes he’s going to be playing. For the season he was at 9.5/7.0/1.8 per 36 (18.3 PRA). He averaged 6.7/6.5/1.5 in 33 minutes last playoffs against the Clippers, which would just get him over the line but he shot awfully, at just 33.3% from the field (19.2% from 3). We saw in the second half of G1 the Clippers D really try get the ball out of Luka’s hands early, so am expecting him to have a relatively low usage game here which should means a few extra shots for the rest of the guys. Lue also mentioned post game that Luka is likely going to see Kawhi for extended stretches here so it’s setting up to be tough for him. Kleber had a nice game in the opener with 6/9/4, but had just 3 FGA which is well below his per 36 mark of 7.7 for the season. Should get a few more looks in this one to go along with the peripherals which should be there.