Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/1

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

99 Wins / 149 Losses
34.71 Units Profit
+24.00% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

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Nuggets vs Mavericks 12:40pm AEST

Could be the best upside bet of the season here. These prices are absolutely insane. We’ve been on a good run so am happy to launch at this one. His PRA is set at 18.5 which off the bat looks extremely low, but man it’s hard to get a read on Malone’s rotations sometimes and he tends to go with the hot hand approach, so if Porter doesn’t have it going early we could see him in the low 20s, but if he does then he has upside into the 30s (especially as Will Barton has struggled of late). He has only played in 6 games this season, but hit 25 PRA in 4 of them (10/3/2 against great Clippers defence, 7/6/2 against good Suns defence first night back from 3 week absence playing just 19 mins). Great to see him get up to 35 mins against the Suns in their latest matchup, which should have given him plenty of time to get back into the swing of things and shows there mustn’t be a minutes limit. Malone talked him up after the game against the Suns so wouldn’t even surprise to see him move back into the starting line-up today. Like his matchup today against the Mavs who are still missing a bunch of perimeter defenders, which has seen them drop to the 22nd ranked defence over the last 2 weeks. He’s covered this 30+ PRA line twice in his 6 games, covered the 25 Points once (24 once too) and the 30 Points once. Crazy odds across the board. Over the last 7 games of last regular season, he hit 25+ Pts 3 times and 30+ twice including a game of 37. Barton wasn’t around and he was playing big minutes, but the man can score.

Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.7 units
Michael Porter Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.5 units
Michael Porter Jr over 19.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 81.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Michael Porter Jr over 29.5 Points @ 152.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

He got completely schemed out of the games against Raptors and Pacers last week with just 15 and 13 points but bounced back strongly against SA with 36. Was good again against the Rockets in a blowout loss with 26 in just 29 minutes. Should really enjoy this matchup against a Denver team who’s defence has been very concerning all season. He lit them up for a season high 38 points when they met previously, and actually has a better per 36 line when he’s sharing the floor with KP at 27/10/13. This included the two games KP played in against the Raptors and Pacers last week, which has obviously kept that scoring number down. Gary Harris will likely be the primary guy on him again today, but Luka blitzed him for 24 points on 34.4 partial possessions last time they met so that is not a concern. King of multi-cat upside hitting 55 PRA 5/15 games this season including 60 against the Nuggets last matchup.

Luka Doncic over 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
Luka Doncic 54.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.2 units

Blazers vs Thunder 2:10pm AEST

Coming off a back to back set against the 4th best defence over the last two weeks in the Clippers where he still managed to put up some huge numbers covering this in both of them averaging 34.0 PA. Gets the other side of the spectrum here against a Blazers defence who rank 26th over the last two weeks and 29th in half-court defence on the season. His advanced stats have been off the charts of late as he comfortably leads the league in drives per game at 29.1 over his last 7 (Luka 26.3). Easily leads the league in points off those drives too, with 16.3 points (Herro 13.0). He takes 66% of his shots at the rim or floater range which sets up nicely for him as the Blazers opponents have shot 62.0% at the rim and 44.7% from floater range. Those numbers are full season so include Nurkic, they are trending down with Kanter there. In that 7 game sample, he’s cleared the 30 point mark 3 times so worth having something on here. OKC have been playing some scrappy ball so hopefully they can hang around.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.4 units
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 6.25 with B365 – 0.3 units

Don’t at all mind this as a bounce back spot for Dort. He’s probably going to need to play big minutes as the primary guy on Dame, and before yesterday’s blunder where he went 2-10 he had 19+ points in 3 straight games. He’s been the only player to receive a significant usage bump without Horford this season, up 3.3% to 22.2% (Shai 2nd, +0.5%). Include George Hill in that sample and Dort’s usage sky rockets up to 25.9% posting a 19.5/4.9/1 per 36 line . He’s another high upside guy as team’s just continue to leave him open taking 5.4 open or wide open 3 pointers per game. Have mentioned Blazers poor defence above and the opportunity will be there.

Lu Dort over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units
Lu Dort over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Bazley has all the opportunity in the world this season but unfortunately hasn’t been cashing in. Can’t really find his groove offensively but it’s nice he’s still defending well and rebounding well to still make a positive impact on games when his offence isn’t there. Had a little stretch earlier in the season where he had 33 & 35 PRA within a 3 game span and won’t get a much better opportunity to find some rhythm today. Small upside bet as he gets a nice 2.0% usage bump sans Hill and Horford.

Darius Bazley over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
Darius Bazley over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 6.7 units out

Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.7 units
Michael Porter Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.5 units
Michael Porter Jr over 19.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 81.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Michael Porter Jr over 29.5 Points @ 152.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Luka Doncic over 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
Luka Doncic 54.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.4 units
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 6.25 with B365 – 0.3 units
Lu Dort over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units
Lu Dort over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
Darius Bazley over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
Darius Bazley over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
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