Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 23/9

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

375 Wins / 254 Losses
+113.10 Units Of Profit
17.06% ROI

Lakers vs Nuggets 11:00am AEST

It’s a very tough series to bet on from a player prop perspective. Nuggets rotation is very messy and changing game to game (based on what’s happening in game so very hard to predict) which makes it difficult to bet any with confidence. Lakers are a bit easier with most guys fairly locked but with AD, Lebron & Rondo when he’s out there taking up so much usage it doesn’t really leave much for the other guys. KCP is still scorching hot but the volume isn’t there and he might be due for an off game at some point, his price has come down now so not really much value there. Jokic and AD (both Points + Assists) would be my favourite plays from the studs but there really is no margin for error with such high lines.

Going to back Lakers 1H -3 here. They look a completely different team when they are out running in transition compared to the when things slow down late in the game. Lebron and AD are both great half-court players but their offence just turned to shit in the 4Q of G2. They were very lucky to hit some very tough late clock 3s to build a lead and ultimately escape with the game. They are playing at a 103.5 pace in the 1H and have an offensive rating of 126.2 (net rating of 21.4) through the 2 first halves, compared to a 92 pace and and a 109.8 offensive rating (-7.6 net rating) in the 2 second halves. They have won both first halves by 10 or more. Nuggets starting slow isn’t exactly new to this series either, with a -9.4 first half net rating through their 16 playoff games.

Lakers 1st Half -3.5 @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
Lakers 1st Half H2h / Nuggets +6.5 @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Lakers 1st Half H2h / Nuggets ML @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Lakers 1st Half 7+ / Denver 1-10 (Halftime/Fulltime Margin) with TAB @ 19.00 – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan

Lakers 1st Half -3.5 @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
Lakers 1st Half H2h / Nuggets +6.5 @ 4.00 – 0.1 units
Lakers 1st Half H2h / Nuggets ML @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Lakers 1st Half 7+ / Denver 1-10 (Halftime/Fulltime Margin) with TAB @ 19.00 – 0.1 units
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