Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 23/5

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

89.16 Units Profit
16.75% ROI

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Clippers vs Mavericks 6:30am AEST

He’s been in absolute cruise control the last month or so of the season and we’ve seen his usage rate plummet as a result but expect him to come out aggressive here. Have to assume he’s as healthy as he’s been all season with all the rest he’s been able to take over the last month only playing above 33 minutes once since April 9. He’s probably going to play somewhere between 36-40 here and it’s a nice matchup for him against a Mavs team he torched in the playoffs last season. He averaged 32.8/10.2/5.2 across their 6 game series. Don’t think Clippers will have any issues against the Mavs in this series.

Kawhi Leonard over 38.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit

Nets vs Celtics 10:00am AEST

They’ve come out and said he won’t have a minutes limit on him so expect him to get into the high 30s as he did routinely in the regular season. We’ve got a large enough 202 minute sample with the big 3 on the court together, and Harden has been diming at 11.4 per 36. Has a huge 39.4% assist percentage in that sample. His usage rate takes a massive hit down to 18.5% putting up just 16 points per 36 as he really just is in distribution mode. Don’t mind his points under here either. Only played 25 minutes in both his games since returning but managed to put up a wild 19.0 potentials per game which is a ridiculous 27.36 per 36. Westbrook like numbers. Very keen on this, and Love the Nets to win here. Feel free to take the player performance double as I think Nets are going to roll them.

James Harden over 9.5 Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
James Harden over 13.5 Assists @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

It’s a Brutal matchup here for the Celtics. They have battled to find any rhythm all season and are obviously without Jaylen here. The Nets offence is just too good and their defence has really improved up to 18th in the half-court. Really not much to say here as the Celtics just simply do not have the firepower to hang with them or the defence to even slow them down. Really think this ends in 4. Maybe Celtics get a big Tatum game, but it’s really hard to see this going any further than 5. Prediction: Nets 4-0

Brooklyn Nets -2.5 Games @ 1.68 with B365 – 1.5 units

Blazers vs Nuggets 12:30pm AEST

Things are really setting up for a big Nurk series here. Stotts made it very clear that he is off any minutes restrictions so I expect he’ll get close to 36. Got up to 37 in a game against the Lakers last season so that upside is definitely there and he’s probably looking at a 32 minimum. Averaged 17.7 first half minutes (a couple of blowouts) so was on track to average 36 also. It just makes a ton of sense to try get Nurk involved in everything offensively to try and either get Jokic into foul trouble or at least try tire him out a bit. Nurk has dominated Jokic this season, with a 22/14/7 per 36 line in a decent 42 minute sample. This is the same line set as during the regular season where he averages just 25.7 minutes over his last 15 games. Doesn’t make much sense to me.

Jusuf Nurkic over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.1 units
Jusuf Nurkic over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.2 units

If Nurk is going to play 36 minutes which I fully expect, that dramatically cuts out the minutes available for Kanter. He is extremely productive, at 0.96 PRA per minute, but I really struggle to see him hitting double digit minutes here. Blazers need to have either Nurkic or Kanter out there while Jokic is, and Jokic will likely play closer to 40 but I can see it playing out something like this: Nurk gets his usual 9 minutes to start the game, Kanter in for 3 while Jokic finishes the quarter, small ball lineup to start the 2nd which the Blazers love going to then Nurk back in with Jokic. Might not see Kanter at all in the second half. Slight chance Stotts even decides to match Nurk minutes with Jokic. There’s just a lot of options for Stotts here and he did mention in a presser that Nurk has advantages guarding Jokic that Kanter doesn’t.

Enes Kanter UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 0.8 units

Once again I don’t think the bookies have fully adjusted to playoff minutes. Stotts occasionally played Dame entire second halves during the regular season, so I just don’t see how he plays sub 38 here, likely pushing above 40. He’s at 32.2/4.7/8.4 per 40 on the season. Should be a close game and I don’t see Facu giving him many issues although he’s a bloody nuisance.

Damian Lillard over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.84 with Topsport – 1 unit
Damian Lillard over 34.5 Points @ 3.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Damian Lillard over 39.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Jazz vs Grizzlies

Do not expect this line to hang around. Only 1 day break for the Grizz after 2 huge games verse a rested and finally healthy Jazz team who has just been awesome at home.

Utah Jazz -8.5 @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units ***Line is 7.5 @ TAB

What is going on here! How is a Jazz sweep not the favoured outcome? This is going to be a short series whichever way you slice it and Jazz will be favourites in every game. It’s so hard to see Grizzlies stealing a game in Utah, and Grizzlies have hardly made their home court a fortress this season with an 18-18 record. Grizzlies are not a good team, they had absolutely no business beating the Warriors today but they got a career Ja game, some great contributions elsewhere as they went 15-35 (42.9%) from 3, a blessing in disguise with JV getting into foul trouble as they lucked into some awesome Tillman minutes which he wouldn’t have otherwise got (honestly thought his defence in the first half was impeccable and that’s where they won the game), a ridiculously sloppy game from Dray and Curry with 21 total turnovers and non Steph Ws shot just 6-19 from 3 (5-18 before the Poole shot after the game was over). Utah swept the season series 3-0 despite not having Conley for one game and Donny for another. Grizz didn’t have JJJ in any of those games but he is not currently helping the Grizz at all with a pretty ridiculous -15.8 net rating through 253 minutes since returning from injury. He didn’t get any 4th quarter minutes today for a reason. Save on the 4-1 incase they do take a game at home.

Utah Jazz 4-0 @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 1 units
Utah Jazz 4-1 @ 3.00 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units

Series:

Always a bit of fun to get a series multi going in the first round (not going to record this, just a personal play I’ve got on if you’d like to tail). Give a slight edge to the Hawks in their series, and the Nuggets/Blazers series could really go either way but have strong enough opinions on the others. I’ve put a half unit on.

Bucks Win / Clippers -1.5 Games / Nets -2.5 Games / Lakers Win / Jazz -1.5 Games (would love to have this -2.5) / 76ers Win @ 9.00 with Sportsbet

For those that were around, you’ll remember I was all over Miami to beat the Bucks last season but coming into this one I couldn’t feel any more different. A lot has changed since then, with the two most important things being the subtraction of Bledsoe who was deadset awful with a 36.5 eFG% throughout the series, and obviously, the addition of Jrue. There are plenty of other swings this time around also. Dragic absolutely killed them, with a highly efficient 19.8 PPG, but he hasn’t got back to that level all season and it’s hard to imagine he gets back to that all star level here and even if he does, Bucks now have the perfect guy to throw on him to slow him down in Jrue. Heading into the series most people including myself thought that it would be Bam as the primary guy on Giannis, but Crowder took that responsibility and was awesome but they’ll be without him here so Giannis should be able to get his offence going. Crowder was also exceptional offensively averaging 15.2 points on 64.2 eFG%. Tucker gives Bucks some defensive flexibility as they can go to some switching groups which was an option they just didn’t have last season. This Bucks team is much more equipped for the playoffs while Miami aren’t playing anywhere near the same level. Prediction: Bucks 4-1 *Thought I was going to have a bit more time tonight but I’ll try get a write up done for the Mavs/Clippers Celtics/Nets & Nuggets/Blazers series done in the morning while the Miami/Bucks game is on, then the 4 Monday series tomorrow arvo.

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Staking Plan – 10.4 units out

Kawhi Leonard over 38.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit
Utah Jazz -8.5 @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
Utah Jazz 4-0 @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 1 units
Utah Jazz 4-1 @ 3.00 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
James Harden over 9.5 Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
James Harden over 13.5 Assists @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Brooklyn Nets -2.5 Games @ 1.68 with B365 – 1.5 units
Jusuf Nurkic over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.1 units
Jusuf Nurkic over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.2 units
Enes Kanter UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 0.8 units
Damian Lillard over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.84 with Topsport – 1 unit
Damian Lillard over 34.5 Points @ 3.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Damian Lillard over 39.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units