Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 21/4

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

76.61 Units Profit
14.99% ROI

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Nets vs Pelicans 9:40am AEST

He’s been a bit of a surprise to me but can’t argue with the production he’s given the Pelicans this season and he should be a major beneficiary of James Johnson missing this one as he’ll likely have even more minutes headed his way. He’s covered this in the last 3 games he’s played 30 minutes and his multi positional flexibility should get him into the mid 30s here with how thin this Pelicans line-up currently is. We’ve got a decent enough sample now for the season at 295 minutes, and his per 36 line is awesome with 11.5/6.8/4.6. Gets a nice matchup against the Nets here and their 25th ranked defence. This should set up as a nice game environment with plenty of opportunity to go around.

Naji Marshall over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Hornets vs Knicks 9:40am AEST

Thought he may have been a little limited last game coming off the bench so stayed clear, but he exploded for 5 3’s but once again it’s the attempts that are just way way up. He’s now had 27! attempts over his last 3 healthy games which is just ridiculous considering we are getting even money here. He’s shooting the ball so confidently and I don’t mind this matchup at all for him as a big part of Knicks defence which I usually try to avoid is limiting opponents in transition, but P.J takes almost all of his 3s in half-court sets so shouldn’t be a major problem. I would’ve loved to have this been against a worse defence as Knicks can go to a switching defence which makes getting up 3s tougher out of the PNR, but the prices are just too good as P.J is just so streaky, have to ride him.

P.J Washington over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.03 with Topsport – 1 unit
P.J Washington over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
P.J Washington over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Clippers vs Blazers 12:10pm AEST

Not something I usually bet on, but there is a clear trend forming so am happy to have a go at the price. Over the last 4 games Morris has played, the Clippers first half court possession has been a Morris jumper down in the post. 4 games ago, took the first shot of the game and rimmed out, 3 games ago took the first shot and made it, 2 games ago Morris took the first shot and missed, last game Zubac got a look in transition but the very next play (first half court possession) Morris took it and made it. So much can go wrong here but worth a crack at the price.

Marcus Morris FIRST BASKET @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

He’s just balling at the moment making it near impossible to fade him and he couldn’t get a better matchup here against this historically bad Blazers defence. Get’s a silly 7.6% usage bump right up to 37.8% in 315 minutes with no Lou or Kawhi on the court this season. Had 5 straight 32+ point games (3 of them 36+) before needing just 26 minutes for his 23 points against the Wolves in the blowout W 2 days ago. No Nurkic today makes this just far too good a spot to pass up on the high (but reasonable) number and the Blazers should be able to hang around here. Averages 32.3/6.8 in the 4 games he’s played without Kawhi and Lou.