Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 21/3

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Pre Break:

79.28 Units Profit
20.32% ROI

Post Break:

1.38 Units Loss
-5.30% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

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Hawks vs Lakers 6:30am AEST

He’s been super inconsistent of late which has resulted in his line coming right the way down to 23.5 which means we are getting a very attractive price for him to score 30/35+. He’s had 30+ in 36% of his games this season and 35+ in 23% of his games so these prices are really nice. Lakers defence has remained strong recently but they have been leaking points at the PG position giving up the 6th most over the last month.

Trae Young over 29.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Trae Young over 34.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

76ers vs Kings 11:10am AEST

I was a little surprised to see the Kings as 6 point underdogs before Simmons got ruled out, and to see them at +4 now I’m more than happy to take. They are desperate for wins and although have been struggling a little this season, they are 5-5 over their last 10 and have won 2 in a row with the 11th best net rating over the last 2 weeks. Philly are without Embiid, Simmons and Curry today which I just think will be too much to overcome. Embiid leads the team with a +15.3 on/off differential, Curry 2nd at +14.8 and Simmons 4th at +7.3 (Tobias 3rd +9.1).

Sacramento Kings +4 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
Sacramento Kings ML @ 2.65 with B365 – 1 unit

Warriors vs Grizzlies 11:10am AEST

Look for a much better showing from the Grizz today. It is extremely rare to see a team go 2-0 against an evenly matched team away from home. These teams are probably evenly matched at full strength, but without Steph the Grizzlies have a clear talent edge so I would be really surprised to see them not turn the tables here. Warriors had some huge contributions yesterday across the board with Wiggins dropping 40 on 14-24 from the field and 6-11 from 3, Jordan Poole scored 25 going 10-15 from the field and 3-6 from deep and Damion Lee with 21 going 8-14 from the field and 4-8 from deep. All 3 of these lines will be very tough to replicate and the Warriors will lose another big man in Looney today which means Smiley (who is not good at all) is going to be forced into the rotation. Was close to just taking the Grizzlies a the line here but it is a lot of points to lay as the Grizz haven’t been playing great recently, so going to the player performance double with JV who has 12+ boards in 7 of his last 8 including 16 yesterday and should get a ton of uncontested ones again today against the very limited Warriors front-court.

Jonas Valanciunas over 11.5 Rebounds / Grizzlies win @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 3.4 units out

Trae Young over 29.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Trae Young over 34.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Sacramento Kings +4 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
Sacramento Kings ML @ 2.65 with B365 – 1 unit
Jonas Valanciunas over 11.5 Rebounds / Grizzlies win @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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