Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 21/1

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

80 Wins / 121 Losses
24.44 Units Profit
+20.13% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

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76ers vs Celtics 11:10am AEST

No Curry again today gives us another chance to back Shake here. It isn’t the best matchup for him against this really solid Celtics defence but the opportunity will be there and he is rolling right now averaging 25.5 points and 5.25 dimes over his last 4 games in just 28.5 minutes. Maxey has been good, but Shake has been better so we should be seeing plenty of him again today. He is still rocking a 31.3% usage over his last 4 and it was great to see Doc come out and say he wants him to “keep his foot on the gas” so we can expect him to keep that usage him again. Looks a lot like Doc is trying to use him in that Lou Williams role.

Shake Milton over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Pistons vs Hawks 11:40am AEST

Minutes minutes minutes minutes minutes. Been on him his last couple and he’s come through for us but today we get to really attack him. I was a little surprised to see him get up to 40 minutes against the Wolves, but we have to think he gets somewhere around that again here as they are even more shorthanded. As mentioned in a few tweets he has upside in all 3 categories but we haven’t really seen him explode offensively yet which he is capable of doing. Line has crept up a little but happy to attack it and when someone is set to play this many minutes you need to have some exposure to their upside.

Kevin Huerter over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.3 units
Kevin Huerter over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
Kevin Huerter over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Magic vs Wolves 11:40am AEST

Have to go again here. Although he had been handling the ball a ton since Fultz went down, he only had just 7 minutes prior to the game against Knicks with no PG (Cole, Fultz, Bone) this season. A huge development against the Knicks as he had 9 full minutes as the lone PG. We now have a small sample of 16 minutes but the numbers are ridiculous with a 66.7% Assist rate averaging 18.4 dimes per 36. Cole Anthony has been dreadful and it’s honestly frustrating to watch so I think we might be seeing even more of Gordon with no PG. Don’t mind Fournier coming back into the mix here as he’s someone who can get his shot off quickly and is actually capable of hitting shots unlike a lot of these other guys. The touch time was way back up to 6.8 minutes last game which was the second highest number of the season after the 7.1 against the Bucks. Potentials were right up to 14.0 as well (maybe got a little lucky with 9 dimes last game). Wolves defence has really improved of late with Okogie and Vanderbilt as they are 15th over the last 2 weeks, but it’s still a good matchup for him in a game they are 4pt favs. I’m not sure there is heaps of upside with him yet (and the prices have come way down) as he is still playing a lot off ball while Cole is out there as he’s so ball dominant, but if Cole has another bad game here we might see him dialled back a bit and more Point Gordon mins. Love the lower lines though.

Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.3 units
Aaron Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
Aaron Gordon over 6.5 Assists @ 4.40 with B365 – 0.2 units
Aaron Gordon over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Suns vs Rockets 1:40pm AEST

He’s had a pretty shaky start to the season but everything has lined up perfectly for him here. The Suns had gone through big stretches where they were better with him off the floor and Saric playing small ball 5 which has kept his minutes right down only getting above 30 mins 5 times this season, but with Saric out again here it clears the path for mid 30’s (had 34 against Memphis 2 days ago with no Saric). His production has dropped a ton this year as well but the signs are there for him to turn it around. Love the move of Johnson into the starting line-up to give him some more space and it actually looked like they had a nice 2 man game going. Everything that comes out of the Suns camp is about trying to get him going and they may have cracked it. He’s had just 12 dunks all season, and 5 of them came against the Grizz. He also had 13 post ups which is way up from the 5.4 per game he was averaging. Gets a really good matchup here against the Rockets who give up the 4th most paint points in the league.

Deandre Ayton over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1.4 units
Deandre Ayton over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Came through in a big way for us against the Bulls but he goes from the best matchup for PNR ball handlers to the 5th worst. However, the Suns have really struggled against the roll man giving up the 6th most PPP so this could be a sneaky dimes spot for him if he can get Wood going. Looks like they already had some great chemistry, with Wood going 7-11 on passes off Dipo. Dipo had 18 PNR ball handler possessions in his Rockets debut along with 28 drives, 7.4 minutes in possession and 13 potential assists. Very high numbers and he should have the same role today with no Wall. Maybe some minute upside too as he only played 32 last game.

Victor Oladipo over 5.5 Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.3 units
Victor Oladipo over 7.5 Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
Christian Wood over 24.5 Points @ 2.85 with B365 – 0.4 units
Christian Wood over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 7.8 units out

Shake Milton over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
Kevin Huerter over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.3 units
Kevin Huerter over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
Kevin Huerter over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.3 units
Aaron Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
Aaron Gordon over 6.5 Assists @ 4.40 with B365 – 0.2 units
Aaron Gordon over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Deandre Ayton over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1.4 units
Deandre Ayton over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
Victor Oladipo over 5.5 Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.3 units
Victor Oladipo over 7.5 Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
Christian Wood over 24.5 Points @ 2.85 with B365 – 0.4 units
Christian Wood over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
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