Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 19/1

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

56 Wins / 91 Losses
13.76 Units Profit
+14.78% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

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Suns vs Grizzlies 9:10am AEST

Great to see him back and he looked good with a bunch of big plays throughout. He played 30 minutes which was a positive so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get up to 32-34 today which would make this line look really low. He had 15 potentials against Philly which is right around what we’d expect on the season as he’s been at 15.2 potentials per 32 minutes. Not the greatest matchup for him today but with JV out, we could see more Clarke and so far this season Ja averages 10.2 dimes per 36 with Clarke on which is up from the 6.3 per 36 without him. Hasn’t exactly translated into the regular season yet but he did average 13.6 dimes per 36 in the pre season.

Ja Morant over 6.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
Ja Morant over 9.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.1 units

Line is getting up there now and 7.5 would have been awesome, but it’s hard to ignore some of the advanced numbers over his last 3 where he’s averaging 10.0 dimes. He’s first in the league in potentials over that span with 22.3 per game with 7.6 minutes in possession which has him 4th in the league. Ja leads the Grizzlies in pace at 107.2 with the next highest Allen at 103.03 so we won’t be seeing many more of the slow low scoring games the Grizzlies have been apart of while Ja is out.

Chris Paul over 8.5 Assists @ 2.15 with B365 – 1 unit

Bucks vs Nets 11:40am AEST

This is as good a spot as it gets for Giannis. Nets don’t really have anyone who can guard him and this game is going to be played at a very quick pace with the Bucks playing at 102.00 this season and it’s just a one game sample but the Nets played at 106.3 pace while Harden and KD were on the floor which would lead the league. Always tough backing Giannis at his big line but in a game with a 239.0 implied total and just a 3.5 point spread it really sets up nicely for him. Ridiculous usage over his last 8 games up at 37.5%.

Giannis Antetokounmpo over 29.5 Points @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Often hard to bet on the studs from both of these teams but we are getting a great opportunity today. Going to play a little same gamer with them all in case we get a shootout that stays close.

Giannis over 29.5 Points / Middleton over 22.5 Points / Durant over 29.5 Points / Harden over 8.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Raptors vs Mavs 11:40am AEST

Have to have something on him here as he’s coming off his best game of the season with 24 points in 28 minutes. The Raptors are just desperate for some bench production (other than Boucher) and Powell is given the opportunity on a nightly basis but unfortunately has just not been playing well at all. The minutes are inconsistent, as it’s hard for Nurse to leave him out there if he isn’t scoring but there is minute upside as the Nurse really doesn’t have much trust in any of his bench guys at the moment.

Norman Powell over 14.5 Points @ 2.80 with TAB – 0.3 units
Norman Powell over 19.5 Points @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Rockets vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

Massive role change incoming for Oladipo here in Houston as he’s going to be handling the ball a whole lot more. He was playing PG in practice which is going to be massive for him as as he was playing next to Brogdon the majority of his minutes in Indiana and as we know Brogdon has been ultra ball dominant this season. Coming into a new system I’d expect him to try and get his team-mates involved early. Have to be exposed to some alts here for both the dimes and points as anything could happen in this new system. Bulls have been getting torched by guards this season.

Victor Oladipo over 5.5 Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1 unit
Victor Oladipo over 7.5 Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
Victor Oladipo over 9.5 Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 unit
Victor Oladipo over 29.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 5.4 units out

Ja Morant over 6.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
Ja Morant over 9.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.1 units
Chris Paul over 8.5 Assists @ 2.15 with B365 – 1 unit
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 29.5 Points @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
Giannis over 29.5 Points / Middleton over 22.5 Points / Durant over 29.5 Points / Harden over 8.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Norman Powell over 14.5 Points @ 2.80 with TAB – 0.3 units
Norman Powell over 19.5 Points @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
Victor Oladipo over 5.5 Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1 unit
Victor Oladipo over 7.5 Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
Victor Oladipo over 9.5 Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 unit
Victor Oladipo over 29.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
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