Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 18/6

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

101.60 Units Profit
15.8% ROI

View Results Spreadsheets

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Bucks vs Nets

Heartbreaking loss yesterday. He’s still pretty clearly being used predominately as a spacer with his only post up coming from the first play out of half time but he was able to find a bit of extra offence throughout the game flow. Still think there’s still some value here across the board so we’ll run it back.

Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 2.90 with B365 – 0.6 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 46.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 61.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 526.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Don’t want you guys to think I’ve gotten trigger happy on this type of bet here but I have been on the lookout and think one has just fallen into our laps. Harden is so obviously hobbled right now with the hammy and it really impacted his shot selection last game. It’s hard enough to score in the paint on the Bucks with Lopez and Giannis in there at the best of times so for Harden who clearly doesn’t have much explosion right now it’s a daunting task. Add to that they are really letting them play in this series with foul calls at a minimum so he likely won’t be able to draw fouls at the usual rate. Definitely expecting the majority of his shots to come from 3 once again today. Had just a 19.5% usage rate last game as he was in distribution mode and am thinking he’ll be around there again today.

James Harden UNDER 17.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
James Harden UNDER 17.5 Points / Over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 21.25 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
James Harden UNDER 17.5 Points / Over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 141.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
James Harden UNDER 23.5 Points / Over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 17.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Just impossible to trust the Bucks second half offence right now. They have a 97.9 second half O rating which is the worst in the playoffs, and that plummets to a 91.7 rating in the 4th quarter. The next worst 4th quarter offence is the Nets at 104.2 which is a ridiculous difference over a 5 game stretch. Can definitely see a scenario where the Bucks come out hot in front of their home fans then just aren’t able to close it out as the game slows down. I really wanted to just put a unit on the Nets line or ML but there’s a decent enough chance Bucks just come out lights out and Nets call it quits early after the huge effort last game. Been able to find some value going this route with a smaller outlay.

Bucks / Nets Halftime/Fulltime Double @ 8.20 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Bucks 7+ / Nets 1-10 Halftime/Fulltime Margin @ 18.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Griffin didn’t play at all in the 4th last game and he certainly won’t shoot as well as he did there so have a lean on his under PRA again, but maybe he does have 36 minute upside which if Green is cold or gets in foul trouble. Expecting even less Forbes here, so don’t mind his under again either and most importantly I would be sticking clear of betting the Bucks today. Value is all on the Nets side. May sprinkle some KD 40+ / Nets win , Harden Triple Double / Nets win closer to tip too but unsure.

Just been hearing a few trustworthy reports that Harden’s hammy is quite the bit better. If he’s going to play 40+ mins again he’s obviously a chance at smashing through these lines – just a little hedge here. Still think majority of the points come from 3s but he could get hot, probably should’ve done this to start with.

James Harden over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 3.0 units out

Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 2.90 with B365 – 0.6 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 46.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 61.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 526.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
James Harden UNDER 17.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
James Harden UNDER 17.5 Points / Over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 21.25 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
James Harden UNDER 17.5 Points / Over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 141.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
James Harden UNDER 23.5 Points / Over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 17.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Bucks / Nets Halftime/Fulltime Double @ 8.20 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Bucks 7+ / Nets 1-10 Halftime/Fulltime Margin @ 18.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
James Harden over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units