Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 14/6

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Results:

101.60 Units Profit
15.8% ROI

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Nets vs Bucks

Can’t believe this total.. Pretty clear we were on the right side today with the Nets as they have opened 2 point favourites here. The pace has come WAY down and was played at 96.5 in todays game as the Nets don’t go for offensive rebounds meaning they can limit the Bucks transition offence. Bucks had just 13.5% of their plays today in transition which is way way down from the Bucks league high 19.4% during the regular season. Bucks just can’t score against this team as the switching completely limits the ball movement and they are forced to go 1 on 1. They are averaging just 93 points through 3 games which is getting to a large enough sample and they managed just 56 points in the final 3 quarters today. This line/total means the Bucks are implied to score 113/4… which is absolute insanity after back to back games in the 80s, and even in G1 where they scored 107, 61 of those were in the first half. So in the last 10 quarters of basketball they have only managed 218 points at 21.8 per quarter. I feel pretty good they won’t crack 100 here so the only way this goes over is if the Nets go nuts. Nets were creating such good offence today, there’s no tracking data yet but there will be a lot of missed wide open shots.

Wrote this up going to play some alt totals on B365 but have just had a look around and am honestly in shock at this price for Bucks 0-100. Little saver on 101-105.

Under 229.0 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
Nets -2 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
Milwaukee 0-100 @ 7.00 with TAB – 1 unit
Milwaukee 101-105 @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Role was as expected last game with him spending almost all of his time out on the perimeter to free up space in the paint for Giannis. No luck as he goes just 1-5 from 3 but the volume was nice. Has now taken a combined 8 3s across the last two games and in a very pleasant surprise he got right up to 34 minutes last game as his paint defence was awesome. All 8 of the attempts he’s either been open or wide open. Be shocked if he doesn’t knock down 1 which should give us a free roll at the alts.

Brook Lopez over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 1.62 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
Brook Lopez over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
Brook Lopez over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Just another quick note. The Nets defence deserves so much credit in stifling the Bucks offence. They are making them play in isolation and the numbers that just came through really back that up as shown below.

Passes made (per game):

Regular Season – 254.8

Round 1 – 258.3

Round 2 – 204

Assists:

Regular Season – 25.5

Round 1 – 26.8

Round 2 – 15.7

Potential Assists:

Regular Season – 46.7

Round 1 – 48.0

Round 2 – 30.0