Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 13/2

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

150 Wins / 270 Losses
94.01 Units Profit
+41.18% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

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Rockets vs Knicks 12:10pm AEST

Big news out of yesterday was Robinson getting injured. He hasn’t missed a game this season so we don’t have a sample of how his 28.8 minutes are going to be split up. Would make sense that Noel just steps right in and plays around the 30 minute mark, especially in this matchup with Cousins, but now the Knicks have Taj there and Randle is more than capable of playing centre, so I’m not convinced Noel sees extended minutes. It is worth noting that in the 5 games Noel missed, Robinson averaged 32.9 minutes so Thib definitely likes having some rim protection out there. Noel has always been fairly productive and this season has a 7.3/10.6/0.8/1.8/4.0 per 36 line. I’d like to see how Thibs handles the rotation before going too hard and it’s not the greatest matchup, but want to have something on incase he does see some extended run.

Nerlens Noel over 9.5 Rebounds @ 3.40 with B365 – 0.4 units
Nerlens Noel over 12.5 Rebounds @ 9.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
Nerlens Noel Double Double @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Warriors vs Nets 12:40pm AEST

This should be a fun one, but it’s hard to get excited about any of these guys at the high lines. Happy to get a little multi on in what will likely be a high scoring shootout.

Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists / James Harden over 9.5 Assists / Steph Curry over 29.5 Points @ 7.25 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units

Jazz vs Heat 1:10pm AEST

Don’t usually like taking guys on back t0 backs but Donny has been good to us and theres no reason that should change here as the role for him is just awesome right now. He has a massive 8.2 minutes of touch time per game over his last 3 since Conley went down and is right up at 16.3 potentials per game. Almost all of these potentials are wide open 3’s which Jazz do such a good job of creating (have the shooters to knock them down too), or easy ones around the rim for Rudy or Favors. Watching the last few games closely it honestly feels like he could’ve had a ton more assists (still has 28 over the 3 games) with there being plenty of easy ones around the rim that have ended in fouls.

Donovan Mitchell over 6.5 Assists @ 2.20 with B365 – 1.1 units
Donovan Mitchell over 7.5 Assists @ 3.10 with TAB – 0.4 units
Donovan Mitchell over 9.5 Assists @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
Donovan Mitchell over 34.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Also a huge beneficiary of Conley going down, and has seen an awesome role change over the last 3 games. He’s averaging 32.3 minutes (up from 26.1), has a 19.1% usage (up from 15.7), has 4.9 minutes of touch time (up from 3.0) and is creating 10.7 potentials (up from 9.3). He didn’t play well in the game against Indiana, but has had 2 awesome games in a row of 33 PRA and 35 PRA. He’s done it on extremely hot shooting but there’s a fair bit of wiggle room down to the 21.5 line they’ve offered us. He has upside in all 3 categories and although it’s not the best matchup it should stay close, which has been hard to say for Jazz games over the last few weeks.

Joe Ingles over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
Joe Ingles over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 unit

Smaller bet here as he’s been a bit inconsistent but I’m starting to feel a bit more comfortable about the minutes, and I’m not sure how correlated it is but he’s averaging 30.6 minutes in games Goran has sat, up from 26.4 on the season. He hasn’t really been able to put it all together in the same line, but over his last 5 he’s had 3 15+ point games and 2 11+ rebound games. Not really any reason for that so happy to take a stab he can have a big game here as he’s had 20+ in 3 of his last 4 (19 in other).

Kelly Olynyk over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.50 with TAB – 0.7 units
Kelly Olynyk over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Been absolutely stuffing the stat sheet since coming back from injury with 7+ boards in all 7 games and 8+ dimes in 6/7 (5 in other). He had been flirting with the triple double throughout that span and managed to put it together and get it done in their latest matchup against the Knicks with a huge 27/10/10 line. Role is as good as it gets right now (19.3 potentials over his last 3) and considering his RA line is 16.5, we’re getting pretty decent value on the triple double again here. Will likely need a little bit of late game luck.

Jimmy Butler Triple Double @ 10.00 with Topsport – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 5.1 units out

Nerlens Noel over 9.5 Rebounds @ 3.40 with B365 – 0.4 units
Nerlens Noel over 12.5 Rebounds @ 9.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
Nerlens Noel Double Double @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists / James Harden over 9.5 Assists / Steph Curry over 29.5 Points @ 7.25 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
Donovan Mitchell over 6.5 Assists @ 2.20 with B365 – 1.1 units
Donovan Mitchell over 7.5 Assists @ 3.10 with TAB – 0.4 units
Donovan Mitchell over 9.5 Assists @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
Donovan Mitchell over 34.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Joe Ingles over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
Joe Ingles over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 unit
Kelly Olynyk over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.50 with TAB – 0.7 units
Kelly Olynyk over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
Jimmy Butler Triple Double @ 10.00 with Topsport – 0.2 units
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