Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 12/2

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Wizards vs Raptors 11:10am AEST

Season Results:

150 Wins / 270 Losses
94.01 Units Profit
+41.18% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

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Warriors vs Magic 2:10pm AEST

The Warriors finally got another body back in the front-court but it didn’t have any impact on Dray’s role or playing time. He’s been awesome since moving to centre having 10+ dimes in each of his last 4 games, averaging 12.75 in that span. They run absolutely everything through him when he’s out there and he’s now playing 100% of his minutes next to Steph which is a great wrinkle for his assist rate as he averages 10.0 dimes per 36 in his minutes with Steph. This Magic defence is awful, ranked 26th over the last 2 weeks and Dray should have a field day picking them apart. It’s a rare occurrence that I’m not too worried of a blowout effecting the bet here, because if Warriors are to blow them out it’ll mean they are knocking down shots and since Dray has such a large hand in creating these shots he can still rack them up. We saw this eventuate in the first game against the Mavs where he had 15 dimes through 3 quarters in the blowout win. It’s a complete mis-match here and I was shocked the Dubs were -5 last night (didn’t notice it until quite late so didn’t post, still like them a lot at -8).

Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 3.10 with B365 Bet Builder – 1 unit

I really think this one is headed for a blowout, and it’ll be Paschall who benefits the most as he could end up playing the entire fourth quarter. They are using him strictly as a backup 5 now that Toscano has been playing well at the 4, but as I’ve mentioned before he’s been smashing there this season. He had a streak of bad games before getting hurt, but may have found some rhythm with a strong 15/6/2 game against the Spurs in just 15 minutes. He has a 28.9% usage and a 24.7/7.1/2.4 per 36 line in 239 minutes at the 5. Doubles as a little saver on Dray but can definitely see them both being able to cash.

Eric Paschall over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.3 units
Eric Paschall over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 1.4 units out

Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 3.10 with B365 Bet Builder – 1 unit
Eric Paschall over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.3 units
Eric Paschall over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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