Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 1/9

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

343 Wins / 223 Losses
+110.07 Units Of Profit
18.58% ROI

Bucks vs Heat 8:30am AEST

His shot has been a little bit shaky in the playoffs and doesn’t get the best matchup here against Heat’s plethora of wing defenders, but his supporting stats have been very consistent with RA totals of 10,11,14,13,17 in the first round. He didn’t get above 33 minutes which was a little surprising, but could see an uptick here against a much more competitive Heat team. Hard to gauge whether Bledsoe will play or not but it only benefits if he doesn’t, receiving a 1.2 RA per 36 increase without him on the court.

Middleton over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1.25 units *Price got smashed on Beteasy, can still get 1.79 on Sportsbet*

He was great in round 1, playing 32.4 minutes per game and including 46 of 48 4th quarter minutes. I don’t think this matchup is great for him though and Miami do have other competent options which may eat into his role. I think what we will see if Olynyk taking Herro’s spot in the closing lineup as he can help deal with some of the Bucks size but Miami don’t lose out on shooting. We also saw Nunn come back into the fold which also may have an impact.

Herro under 15.5 Points @ 2.00 with TAB – 1 unit

During the regular season the Bucks gave up the most 3 point attempts in the league at 39.3 per game which plays into the hands of the Heat who are 2nd in the league in 3 point shooting at 38.9%. The way their defence is structured is to limit points in the paint, so expect Jimmy and Dragic to be kicking out to the 3 point line where I think Crowder & Kelly should be positioned to take advantage. Crowder played 2 games against the Bucks while with Miami and has hit 4 & 5 3’s in those games, and Kelly hit 8 3’s across his 3 games.

Crowder over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.40 with B365 – 0.75 units
Olynyk over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.70 with Ladbrokes – 0.75 units

This is a pretty tough matchup for Jimmy, as 45.5% of his points come in the paint and as mentioned Bucks don’t allow PITP. However, they do allow lots of drives and I think Jimmy is going to be really busy in this one driving and kicking out to guys on the 3 point line. Bam would also greatly benefit If Heat’s 3 pointers are falling, which could turn this into a very dangerous game for the Bucks.

Butler over 4.5 Assists @ 1.70 with Beteasy (1.68 with B365) – 1 unit
Butler 7+ Assists/Miami to win @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Bam 7+ Assists/Miami to win @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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Rockets vs Thunder 11:00am AEST

Hard to trust anyone on this OKC team other than Dennis. He’s playing with a lot of confidence and just looks a step too quick for these Rockets perimeter defenders. Had 29 and 30 the two games before getting stranded on 19 in just 20 minutes in G5. Continues to lead the team in usage at 31.3% over the last 3.