Horse Racing Black Book

Our Black Book: Horses You Must Follow From Flemington 5/10

1 year ago - Sportingbase

Our analyst has looked over the times & replays from Saturday’s Flemington meeting and has found six horses that you must follow next start.

KEENELAND

Strong on pace win by this lightly raced three-year-old gelding who was having only his third start when he took out the Super Impose Stakes. The most impressive part of the win was when John Allen shook him up he responded and put a length on his rivals.

The Super Impose Stakes has been a great guide to the Victoria Derby as since 2013 four winners have completed the double which were Riff Rocket (2023), Warning (2019), Extra Brut (2018) and Polanski (2013). Natalie Young and Trent Busuttin know how to prepare a Derby winner having won the 2011 with Sangster. He is $8 for the Victoria Derby with PlayUp.

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ALL KINDS OF FOLK

The Wangaratta trained three-year-old filly ran a huge race when fourth in the Edward Manifold Stakes. A combination of her inexperience and a bit of interference in the closing stages cost her third place. That was only her third start and the daughter of D’Argento will be suited by a trip further than 1600 metres.

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SAVAGERY VIBE

She will be hard to beat when she heads back to her own sex at her next start. Her effort to be beaten only 2.75 lengths by First Settler in the Danehill Stakes was outstanding as she over raced in the early part of the race. With 100m to go she was also hampered when she was tightened for room. That was only her second start and Nick Ryan has a nice prospect.

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PLENTY OF AMMO

Symon Wilde trained five-year-old mare who with any luck would have extended her winning streak to five on end and won at her first run for a year when she resumed in the Paris Lane Stakes. She sat behind the leaders but from the 500m until the 100m Racing Victoria stewards noted she was held up for a run. She was also hit over the head by a whip from Ethan Brown on Jigsaw with 150m to go. When she finally got a run she charged home but Uncle Bryn had the momentum and couldn’t be caught.

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INTERPRETATION/POSITIVITY

Both had to go back from their wide draws and gave away a huge start in the Bart Cummings. Both worked home strongly in the middle of the track, which wasn’t necessarily the spot to be.
Interpretation covered 12 more metres than the winner produced the best closing last 200m and Positivity covered 14 more metres and the third fastest last 200m for the race.

ELIYASS

Tremendous lead in run to the Caulfield Cup. He had to work from his outside draw to sit second. He then had the job of grabbing the front runner Duke De Sessa which he did so after a long tussle only to prove susceptible to the talented Waller pair of Via Sistina and Buckaroo. He will have a nice weight drop for the Caulfield Cup as he will carry only 53kg.

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MAGIC TIME

Grahame Begg would have been thrilled with her return to racing with her fourth placing in the Gilgai Stakes but also rueing the fact she probably should have won as she was checked with 30m to go when she was about to dive through between Arkansaw Kid and Right To Party. She will be hard to beat in The Invitation.

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