NRL Finals Preview: Raiders journey south to Melbourne for sudden-death blockbuster

The Canberra Raiders will be eyeing their fifth-straight win in Melbourne this Saturday evening when they take on the Storm in a do-or-die qualifying final at AAMI Park.

The sides have faced off twice this season – Round 5 in Wagga Wagga and Round 18 in Melbourne – splitting the games.

Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen led the Storm to a 30-16 victory in Round 5, however, the latter has been ruled out for the remainder of the season whilst the former missed last week with a calf issue.

The Raiders did, however, come away with un upset win in Round 18 in a clash that saw Papenhuyzen pick up a season-ending fractured knee-cap and Canberra rookie James Schiller score a phenomenal individual try to seal it.

Hughes has been named to return for Melbourne in a massive boost with four players from their opening round 17 – Papenhuyzen, Christian Welch, Reimis Smith and George Jennings – unavailable through injury whilst the Raiders will welcome back Jack Wighton and Elliott Whitehead after resting the two veterans in their last-start win over the Wests Tigers.

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Canberra’s recent record in Melbourne is uncanny with four wins from their past four at AAMI Park including a thrilling 12-10 qualifying final win in 2019 which paved the Raiders’ path towards a Grand Final appearance; they have, however, lost their five to the Storm at venues outside of Melbourne.

The Raiders will enter the clash with seven wins from their past eight and are fresh off a 56-10 drubbing of wooden spooners Wests Tigers whilst Melbourne have lost their past two following a ship-steadying four-game unbeaten streak. They were beaten by Parramatta last weekend at CommBank with a top four berth on the line.

Melbourne finished the season with the premiership’s number one attack and fourth-stoutest defence whilst Canberra were ranked eighth in attack and sixth in defence. Both sides also finished in the top five in the premiership for offloads.

The winner of the past seven Melbourne-Canberra clashes has reached at least 20 points so, between that and both squads’ tendencies to create second-phase play, expect a bit of football to be played.

Despite finishing outside of the top four for the first time since 2015, the Storm are $1.43 favourites. It is hard to imagine they find themselves complacent facing a Canberra side best described as “not your average eighth-seed”. Only once in the Craig Bellamy-era have the Storm been knocked out in the first week of the finals – a 28-4 loss to Canterbury in 2014.

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The likes of Hughes, Munster, Grant and Smith should present the Storm with avenues towards the try-line should their middle forwards and outside backs lay a platform out of yardage. Any Canberra victory will likely be spurred on by Tapine and Papali’i through the middle of the field in conjunction with the likes of Elliott, Horsburgh, and Guler. The class gap between the two spines will likely mean that anything short of domination through the centre of the field could result in a long evening for the visitors.

The winner of this one will face the loser of Parramatta-Penrith whilst the loser’s season will end.

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Kick-off: 5:40pm Saturday at AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Meaney; 2. Nofoaluma; 3. Seve; 4. Olam; 5. Coates; 6. Munster; 7. Hughes; 8. J Bromwich (c); 9. Grant; 10. Asofa-Solomona; 11. Kaufusi; 12. K Bromwich; 13. King; 14. Smith; 15. Kamikamica; 16. Loiero; 17. Lewis; 18. Tonumaipea; 19. Grant; 20. Moeroa; 21. Johns; 22. Anderson

Raiders: 1. Savage; 2. Čotrić; 3. Timoko; 4. Kris; 5. Rapana; 6. Wighton; 7. Fogarty; 8. Papali’i; 9. Woolford; 10. Tapine; 11. Young; 12. Whitehead (c); 13. Elliott; 14. Starling; 15. Guler; 16. Horsburgh; 17. Harawira-Naera; 18. Hopoate; 19. Mariota; 20. Frawley; 21. Hola; 22. Nicoll-Klokstad

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