NFL Week 11 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

Week 11 is here and it is crunch time for many of the teams around the league. There are some huge divisional matchups that we are going to get our teeth into

Season Results:

• 45% strike rate
• -5.9 Units Of Profit
• -6% ROI

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns

The difference between Baker Mayfield when he is pressured and when he has time to throw is incredible. Of course, performance will drop off for all quarterbacks under pressure. But Mayfield suffers more than most and his record against the better pass defences this season is not good – the Eagles are one of the better pass defences.

The Eagles are getting healthier and healthier as the season goes on and they are close to having their offence back. They can score enough points to take this one away from the Browns.

• 1 unit Eagles +2.5 2.0 with TopSport

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins

The Washington defence is good, but overall pretty overrated. They give up points and Joe Burrow and the Bengals are a team that can certainly score. On the flip side, the Bengals defence is just pretty bad. This game screams points and the over.

JD Mckissic has benefited more than any player from Alex Smith. He has an absurd number of targets over the past couple of weeks. He has 29 targets and even got a rushing touchdown last week. He has plenty of opportunity to get on the scoreboard.

• 1 unit JD Mckissic anytime touchdown 2.63 with TopSport
• 1 unit Bengals/Washington over 47.5 points 1.9 with TopSport

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Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

The big news in this one is that Taysom Hill and not Jameis Winston will start at quarterback for the Saints with Drew Brees out. Personally, I am not a believer in Hill’s ability as a passer and am going to jump all over the Falcons getting points here.

I want to be on the unders for Hill in the passing game as I think there is a real chance they mix in Winston and Hill is a much more threatening runner.

• 3 unit Falcons +4 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Taysom Hill under 180.5 passing yards
• 1 unit Michael Thomas under 62.5 receiving yards 1.87 with TopSport

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Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defence has been great this season, but they really feel like last season’s Patriots where they have benefitted greatly from a good schedule. This week will be a real test and I think Green Bay are up to it. They had a sloppy game against the Jaguars but they could easily have been looking ahead to this one.

I just do not believe in the Colts offence and their ability to keep up with the better teams. Don’t get me wrong, I think they are a decent team and will be in the playoffs, but Rivers just does not give me confidence.

• 2 unit Green Bay +2 2.0 with TopSport

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Steelers have shown an ability over the years to play down to their competition, and while I have no doubt they will win this one, 10.5 is way too many points with all the evidence against Mike Tomlin’s teams over the years. The recent game against the Cowboys is a prime example. They just let these bad teams stay in the game far too often. Jacksonville showed they aren’t a pushover last week and they can do similar here.

•  1 unit Jaguars +10.5 2.0 with TopSport

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Expert Tips

• 1 unit Eagles +2.5 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit JD Mckissic anytime touchdown 2.63 with TopSport
• 1 unit Bengals/Washington over 47.5 points 1.9 with TopSport
• 3 unit Falcons +4 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Taysom Hill under 180.5 passing yards
• 1 unit Michael Thomas under 62.5 receiving yards 1.87 with TopSport
• 2 unit Green Bay +2 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Jaguars +10.5 2.0 with TopSport

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