NFL Conference Championship Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

5 years ago - Sportingbase

We had a slow start to the season, but since November we are up a massive 34.36 units. With just three games left this season – I will have lots of different Super Bowl picks for you – we are really closing in on a great season. 6.39 units of profit last week was superb and hopefully we can go close to that again here.

Season so far

Profit/Loss: +15.36 units
ROI: 7%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

We get what are my two best teams in the conference here. The Packers have been consistently good all season but the Buccaneers have really found something over the past six weeks or so.

Aaron Rodgers is going to win MVP when it is announced in a couple of weeks time, and he will be looking to go to a Super Bowl for just the second time. Many think he deserves more than his one ring but so often he has come up a little short in these games. Not that it is all on him, but a quarterback is always going to get the blame.

The Bucs defence is a great one and they are getting Vita Vea back here, a massive boost and he will be more than a handful for that Packers offensive line.

Tom Brady just continues to defy time. He was excellent against that fearsome Saints defence and the cold in Green Bay will not affect him after his years in New England. There were concerns about his arm last season but anyone who really watched the Patriots will tell you it was about a poor OL and no trust in his receivers. That is not the case in Tampa.

The Packers defence have some playmakers, but I expect Brady will be able to pick them apart as he has done so often in these games.

2 units Buccaneers +3.5 2.0 with TopSport
1 unit Packers under 27.5 points 2.08 with TopSport
1 unit Mike Evans touchdown 2.5 with TopSport

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Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs got a massive boost with Patrick Mahomes being cleared from the concussion protocol in time for this game. For me, Mahomes is the best player in the NFL. But, and it is a big but, he is carrying two injuries that will seriously hamper him. Firstly turf toe that we saw he was struggling with at times last week and also a neck injury that he picked up when he got the concussion that knocked him out of the game.

The Bills defence has improved as the season has gone on and they have really shown up in these playoffs. Stopping this Chiefs offence is close to impossible, but I believe they will be able to slow them down.

Josh Allen has been playing at MVP level and the pressure of the situation just does not seem to be getting to him. The whole team looks so relaxed and that will stand them well here. He can put up some big numbers and this Chiefs team is so poor against the run. He is always a threat with his legs and I would expect a big game from him in this one.

The Chiefs defence has some studs in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones, but around them they are lacking. They can certainly be beaten and Allen will take advantage of weaknesses if you let him.