NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 28/10

4 years ago - Sportingbase

Hasn’t happened often this season but it’s nice when things go to script like they did in the Miami/Nets game. Bad bet on Sabonis as the Raptors just took him out of the game with multiple physical bodies.

Results:

-4.5 Units Loss
-15% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

Knicks vs Bulls 11:10am AEST

He’s coming off a big usage spike game where he was cooking Maxey, but it’s a tougher matchup for him in this one against the Bulls on the road and we have a lot of outs with Kemba as I’ve mentioned before. Derrick Rose leads the league in net rating (players over 20 minutes) and it’s obvious Thibs feels more confident with him over Kemba so there is constant pressure on Kemba’s minutes, which is great when taking an under. I’m still not buying it as they have versed such limited offensive opposition, but the Bulls defence is currently ranked second, combined with the 26th ranked pace, means they are giving up the second fewest points to opponent PGs. I don’t have a good read on Lavine’s status, but the entire second group for the Bulls are plus defenders so we will likely see his minutes replaced by someone who’s a better defender. There is a chance he blows straight through this, but it’s too high a line based on the range of outcomes.

Kemba Walker UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Might be the last chance we get on Mitch Rob before Noel comes back and makes things really messy. He’s had a nice start to the season averaging 20.5 PRA across his 4 games, with his lowest output coming last game with 14 PRA in about as bad a matchup as he could possibly have against Embiid. Vooch is obviously a talented offensive centre, so I think Thibs will need to run with Mitch Rob while he’s out there as opposed to some smaller ball lineups meaning his minutes should be pretty safe. He’s more of a jump shooter so as long as he isn’t biting on pump fakes (can be prone) he should be able to stay out of foul trouble too. With the Bulls putting pressure on the ball handler, it might open up some easy rim runs for Mitch who certainly won’t be part of any defensive plans.

Mitch Robinson over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
Mitch Robinson double double @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Spurs vs Mavs 11:40am AEST

He’s without question the biggest beneficiary of McDermott’s injury as he’ll likely just slot straight into the starting group. He can play multiple positions and has looked so good to start the season. He only played the 2 summer league games but was playing on ball a bunch and put up a nice 20.5/8.0/1.5 line in just 28 minutes, showing his versatility and that he can be productive. He was getting some nice buzz all through training camp and he carried that over to a nice PS where he had a 15.5/9.5/1.4 per 36 line. He won’t get up to 36 minutes here, but if he can get around 30 which he should it should be more than enough for him to clear this.

Devin Vassell over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
Devin Vassell over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

This line does not reflect the role at all. He’s always been an elite rim protector, but the offence is a pleasant surprise as Pop has really got him more involved and the production looks extremely sustainable. The Spurs are fairly limited offensively, so it does make sense to try and get him some easy looks around the rim. He’s at a team high 40.5 front court touches (Dejounte 35.0), LEAGUE high 7.8 elbow touches, and LEAGUE high 12.3 paint touches (AD 11.8, Sabonis 11.0). He’s covered this fairly comfortably in each game with PA totals of 19, 16 (foul trouble), 16 (tough matchup), and 27.

Jakob Poeltl over 12.5 Points + Assists @ 1.75 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

76ers vs Pistons 10:10am AEST

He’s been playing huge minutes as a starter at 33.5 per night, but has still only managed to cover this line in 1/4 games. He’s been thrust into such a big role due to their lack of PG options, but with the return of Shake tonight that minute upside is likely gone, and there is severe downside. He still has a nice role and the opportunity will be there but happy to take the under here in whats projected as the lowest total game on the slate.

Tyrese Maxey UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.96 with Topsport – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 5.2 units out

Kemba Walker UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
Mitch Robinson over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
Mitch Robinson double double @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Devin Vassell over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
Devin Vassell over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
Jakob Poeltl over 12.5 Points + Assists @ 1.75 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
Tyrese Maxey UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.96 with Topsport – 1 unit
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