NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 21/10

4 years ago - Sportingbase

It was an up and down start but we’re back to improve with 3+ bets on day 2.

Results:

-0.3 Units Profit
-14% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

Hornets vs Pacers 10:10am AEST

It’s all about LaMelo now in Charlotte and we are likely going to see this line moving up to 8.5 over the coming weeks. The role was amazing in pre-season as everything is running through him with it looking like they have built this offence around him. The stats backed up the eye-test in the pre season covering this line in 2 of the 3 games he played 20+ minutes (5 in 20:35 in other) which averaged out at 9.7 dimes per 36. It should be a pretty good game script here with both these defences likely heading for the bottom half of the league (25th and 26th ratings in pre-season).

LaMelo Ball over 6.5 Assists @ 2.05 with TAB – 1 unit
LaMelo Ball over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Raptors vs Wizards 10:40am AEST

It was a surprising move to take Scottie ahead of Suggs but once again Masai seems to be a step ahead. Scottie looked so damn good during pre-season showing off his 1-5 defensive versatility, natural playmaking ability leading the team and all rookies through PS in assists (5.6) and assist-to-turnover ratio (3.1). His shot is a massive work in progress (0-8 from 3) but as he impacts the game in so many other ways Nurse is going to be able to give him extended minutes. He averaged 15.2 first half minutes in the PS so I’m expecting somewhere around 30 tomorrow which would put him at 11.7 RA based off his PS rates. There is a little risk of Nurse taking away some of the on-ball reps he was getting, but this line is still just so low. Love the matchup against the Wizards who’s defence once again looked awful in the PS with a league worst 112.4 D rating.

Scottie Barnes over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit

Spurs vs Magic 11:40am AEST

Very good prices here. Dejounte looked awesome in the PS and the role is going to be up there with the best in the league. He’s headed for a career year whichever way you slice it and I was close to taking his PRA line, but the prices on his 3s are too good to pass up on. It’s looking like Dejounte is going to become another one of Chip England’s success stories as his jumper looked really smooth in the PS. His release was much quicker and he looks far more confident, with the early results being positive going 6-15 (40%) from 3 across his 4 pre-season games. The volume really stood out to me, taking 5.2 attempts per 36 which is well up from the 3.3 last season. I think he’s going to be looking at somewhere between 4-5 3PA this season. He went 3-4 in his final PS game.

Dejounte Murray over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 1.75 with TAB – 1.2 units
Dejounte Murray over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units
Dejounte Murray over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Jazz vs Thunder 12:10pm AEST

He was awfully disappointing last season when he was given essentially unlimited opportunity so to see such a high number here is quite surprising, especially after just an average pre-season. The Thunder are heading into the season with a clean bill of health and with so many options in the front-court I’m expecting Daigneault to go pretty deep in his rotations to try get a look at everyone which will cap his minute upside. The role was pretty bad in the PS with a very low 14.8% usage rate in his 68 minutes with just a 12.7/9.0/2.1 per 36 line despite having an eFG of 58.8% (was 45.6% last season). Brutal matchup to start against Utah who went 31-5 at home last season.

Darius Bazley UNDER 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 4.7 units out

LaMelo Ball over 6.5 Assists @ 2.05 with TAB – 1 unit
LaMelo Ball over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
Scottie Barnes over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit
Dejounte Murray over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 1.75 with TAB – 1.2 units
Dejounte Murray over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units
Dejounte Murray over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Darius Bazley UNDER 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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