NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 2/12

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wizards vs Wolves 11:10am AEST

Think the game under and Wizards TT under are both strong bets here as this style of game just doesn’t suit the Wizards at all. They play soooo so slowly scoring a league low 14.1 points in transition per game, which is not good against the Wolves who have put the clamps on in the half court all season long with the 2nd best half court defence. I wanted to wait for Vanderbilt to be in before making this bet, but he’s in and is likely going to make things tough on Kuzma, who’s minutes upside has dissipated of late (Bertans back) getting above 32 minutes just once in the last 6 games (scored 22, only time he’s covered this line in last 6.)

• Kyle Kuzma UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

76ers vs Celtics 11:40am AEST

This is shaping up to be a very slow paced game with the 76ers ranked 29th and the Celtics 23rd. Maxey has been awesome this season, especially during the stretch of games they had while depleted, but it could be a rough night for him going up against Smart. We’ve got a pretty good sample of Maxey, Harris, Embiid, Curry together at 208 minutes and Maxey is at just 12.8 points per 36 in that span. With the Sixers rotation (sans Simmons) fully healthy it takes away the minute upside. It’s likely going to be a bit of a slug fest, so expect a lot of the Sixers half court to run through Embiid today who has the most favourable matchup on the team.

• Tyrese Maxey UNDER 15.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Bucks vs Hornets 12:10pm AEST

This is easily the best game environment on the slate with both of these teams pushing the pace at every chance. I’m a touch concerned about the matchup for the Hornets side as this Bucks team is just so much better, so I’m staying on the Bucks side as they should all be racking up the stats against the 26th ranked Charlotte D (they give up the most raw points per game too). Jrue has started getting into his work putting up a 23.3/7.7/7.4 per 36 line over his last 4 games, covering this in all of them and this is by far the best matchup of the lot.

• Jrue Holiday over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1 unit

Kings vs Clippers 2:40pm AEST

Happy to run this one back. They just don’t have options at power forward and although they can go smaller here the 35 minutes yesterday is hard to ignore.

• Chimezie Metu over 6.5 Rebounds @ 2.00 with B365 – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 4 units out

• Kyle Kuzma UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Tyrese Maxey UNDER 15.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Jrue Holiday over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Chimezie Metu over 6.5 Rebounds @ 2.00 with B365 – 1 unit

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