Group 1 Australian Guineas Preview: Speedmap, Analysis & Selections
6 years ago - Sportingbase
The 3YO Colts and Geldings tackle the Australian Guineas over 1600m. For many punters its a head to head battle once again between Alligator Blood & Catalyst but we are suggesting to Lay one of them.
Distance:
- 1600m
Track Conditions:
- Good (4)
- Rail: 2m Entire
Track Bias
Expecting a slight advantage to runners handy to the speed and in lanes 1-4 in the straight.
Early Speed
- Genuine
Predicting Catalyst [4] might take up the running in the small field with Alabama Express [6] sitting outside the speed with Alligator Blood [2] taking a sit behind the speed along with Chenier [5].
Top Pick
Keen to take the $2.50+ for the NZ Galloper 4. Catalyst going to the 1600m at his second start here in Australia will take a heap of improvement from the run in the CS Hayes where he was outsprinted late.
Up in distance is ideal and I feel he can turn the tables on Alligator Blood and might even try to lead all the way at a genuine tempo.
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Danger
Godolphin trained 7. Chenier looks the X Factor in the race coming off an impressive return to the track in the CS Hayes where the colt had to sit off a very slow pace and was just caught flat-footed when the sprint went on and once balanced up late hit the line strongly.
Up to 1600m is ideal and will take plenty of improvement from the first up performance, draws to get a nice run in the one/one position and will enjoy the wide Flemington straight.
Lay
Laying the David Vandyke trained 1. Alligator Blood stepping up to the 1600m, the gelding is a slight query to run a strong trip and he got the race run to suit last start in the CS Hayes leading at a slow tempo and only having to sprint late. I
f they decide to go forward on Catalyst I feel he won’t be able to make up the required margin.
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Betting Strategy
- Back: Catalyst (3 Unit Win Bet)
- Back: Chenier (1 Unit Win Bet)
- Lay: Alligator Blood ($3.00-$4.00)
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