G1 Epsom Handicap Preview & Analysis
6 years ago - Sportingbase
With the Epsom being such an open race this year we’ve asked form analyst Chris Camilleri to give us his analysis and selections.
Distance
- 1600m
Track Conditions
- Good (4)
- Rail: 3m Entire
Track Bias
Expecting a relatively even track with all runners getting their chance dependant on individual race pace.
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Early Speed
- Average
Doesn’t look to be too much early speed in the race, Dreamforce (20) will roll forward from out wide and take up the running with Desert Lord (9) handy to the speed & Archedemus (4) prominent when they settle.
Top Pick
Such an open field with a host of gallopers having the required form to be in the finish, have settled on the John Thompson trained 1. Dreamforce with Nash Rawiller on board. Was a dominant winner first up over 1400m in the Tramway Stakes leading all the way, was then a gallant second behind Avilius last start in the Group 1 George Main sitting outside the speed. The wide barrier wont be an issue as there is a lack of an early speed in the race so the gelding will have plenty of time to work across to the lead and if Nash is able to pinch some easy sectionals through he will be hard to run down.
Danger
New Zealand trained 4. Te Akau Shark looks a big danger here, should take massive improvement off the second up run behind Dreamforce after getting back and hitting the line well over 1400m on a track that suited runners handy to the speed. Was a dominant 6 Length winner last preparation when stepping up to the 1600m and if James McDonald is able to find some cover from the wide draw look for the 5YO gelding to be storming home.
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Lay
Heavily against the Chris Waller trained gelding 9. Kolding at around the $5 mark in current markets, got the perfect run in the Group 3 Bill Ritchie settling back off a hot speed and getting to the best part of the track in the straight. Feel the two gallopers I have mentioned will run a much stronger 1600m and the step up to Group 1 company will be a tough one.
Betting Strategy
Back Dreamforce (1 Unit Win Bet)
Back Te Akau Shark (1 Unit Win Bet)
Lay Kolding ($5.00 or below)
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