FREE: Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 4/7

5 years ago - Sportingbase

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Results:

101.60 Units Profit
15.8% ROI

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Hawks vs Bucks G6

Was keen to bet all 3 from last game again here but with Trae in that obviously changes things. As it’s an elimination game, it was probably likely he was going to suit up and give it a go regardless how he’s feeling so I’m a little concerned. He wasn’t out there doing his normal pre game routine with the group but was out in the back so there isn’t any footage of how he looks.

Offensively for the Hawks, everything will likely run through Trae which is going to create a ton of problems for the Bucks. They were awesome defensively to start G5, with a bit of a scheme change switching everything 1-5 with Lopez coming out on the floor. Hawks didn’t really have anyone that was able to take advantage and I thought he did a fairly good job, but Trae shouldn’t have any issues getting by him if they go to that again. Portis is a productive offensive player, which he’s shown throughout his career and he was awesome in G5, but there’s a reason he’s struggled to stay in the rotation throughout the playoffs and it’s his defence. Through the playoffs the Bucks have a 110 D Rating with Portis on the court vs 100 D Rating while he’s off, but with the Bucks seriously limited bench he’s going to have to play big minutes. I really want to take the over here as both teams are more offence over defence with their current lineups but I’m just not sure I can trust Trae’s health. Tough one on the betting front as so much of it comes down to Trae’s health, so I’m just going to have something small on his assists as if he is indeed ready to go then he should really be able to take advantage of the Portis/Lopez front court.

Trae Young over 11.5 Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
Trae Young over 13.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

On the Bucks side, Middleton and Jrue both saw nice bumps as expected without Giannis essentially splitting the ball handling responsibilities with Jrue at 7.9 minutes and Middleton at 7.4. The big number that jumped out at me though was Middleton’s 20 potential assists. He’s averaging 10 boards per 42 minutes without Donte and Giannis on the court this post-season, and with the big time ball handling duties here he should be flirting with a triple double. I do have a strong lean on his over 15.5 Rebound + Assists line but I think this game is going to go a lot differently to what we saw in Milwaukee. Just having a small bet on the triple double at the insane price. It’s 4.50 on TAB and 7.50 on Sportsbet.