Horse Racing Tips

Cox Plate: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order

4 months ago - Sportingbase

Get ready for the 2025 Cox Plate with our complete runner-by-runner breakdown, expert tips, and predicted finishing order. We analyse every contender’s form, map, and key chances to help you find the winner in Australia’s premier weight-for-age race at Moonee Valley.

1. Light Infantry Man — 59kg — Handy/leader’s back

Why he can win

A seasoned international with proven Group 1 form who’s fit and ready after solid runs in Sydney. He maps to get a good spot behind the pace and can grind home strongly if the leaders tire.

Why he can’t win

He hasn’t quite shown his old brilliance this campaign, and his 2000 m runs suggest he might struggle to match the finishing burst of the local stars.

Predicted finish: 7th – Bet Here

2. Antino — 59kg — Handy/midfield

Why he can win

A model of consistency who’s building beautifully through the prep. His Turnbull run was enormous, working wide and still finding late. Shinn has a superb understanding of him and from gate 6, he’ll get a soft run just off the speed. If the tempo is genuine, he’ll be right there at the finish.

Why he can’t win

He can lose momentum if forced wide and exposed early, and if it becomes a dash home, others may quicken faster.

Predicted finish: Top 3

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3. Attrition — 59kg — Pos 3/4

Why he can win

Tough, reliable, and maps perfectly to sit just behind the speed. He keeps putting himself in the race and fighting to the line. If the leaders overdo it, he’s the one who can sneak into the placings.

Why he can’t win

He tends to level out late against the top tier and might simply be outclassed if the big guns produce their best.

Predicted finish: 6th

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4. Buckaroo — 59kg — Midfield (rails)

Why he can win

He’s an honest, high-class galloper who stays all day and never runs a bad race. His Caulfield form reads strongly, and from the inside draw he’ll get every chance to conserve energy and hit the line hard.

Why he can’t win

He’s more of a grinder than a sprinter, so if the leaders stack them up and sprint, he might not be able to reel them in.

Predicted finish: 5th

5. Via Sistina — 57kg — Midfield/one-off

Why she can win

She’s a genuine superstar, the proven Group 1 performer who keeps producing. Her record at 2000 m is outstanding, and she’s right at her peak after an excellent Turnbull third. McDonald knows exactly when to push the button, and from gate 5 she’ll get the perfect trail before letting rip late.

Why she can’t win

If they crawl early and dash home in one burst, she may be left searching for momentum at the top of the straight. Otherwise, it’s hard to fault her.

Predicted finish: Win chance

6. Treasurethe Moment — 55.5kg — Box-seat/handy

Why she can win

She’s a champion mare who just keeps turning up. Her 2000 m form is first-rate, she maps ideally behind the leaders, and Damian Lane will have her in striking range the whole way. The draw means she’ll spend no fuel and can take the shortest way home.

Why she can’t win

She’s at her best in strong-tempo races; if they slacken midrace, she might be out-sprinted by one with a sharper turn of foot.

Predicted finish: Win chance

7. Aeliana — 55.5kg — Mid/back (one-off)

Why she can win

A rapidly improving mare who’s taken on the best and held her own. Her runs in the Winx Stakes and Makybe Diva were top-shelf, and Bowman sticks with her. She’s adaptable and will be charging late if the race sets up for backmarkers.

Why she can’t

If they steady up midrace or she’s caught wide without cover, she’ll have to do too much work before the turn. Needs a smooth run and clear air early in the straight.

Predicted finish: Top 4

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8. Nepotism — 49.5kg — Mid/back (rails)

Why he can win

The lightweight three-year-old who could surprise. With a big weight pull and a soft draw, he can tuck in, follow the right horse, and run on late if gaps appear.