Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Saturday 9th January

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Conditions are stinking hot with the late start to proceedings at 3:20pm due to the heat, winds look to shift south westerly through the late afternoon but aren’t too heavy with the rail in the 2m position.

NSW Service Results: +4.8 Units
VIC Service Results: -2.4 Units
Best Bets Results: +7.5 Units
The Plunge’s Black Book: +8 Units
Essential Punters Results: +11.1 Units

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Race 1 – 3:20PM SALINGER MAIDEN (1400m)

8. Oceanzara – 6. Icarian – 5. I Hope You Dance – 1. Keep It Hush

Oceanzara

Sticking with Oceanzara in what looks to be a much weaker hit out than when we were with her last start when she was runner up behind a smart one in Prized Pursuit. She sat in the breeze and just told late when the leader kicked clear, but she picked up again towards the line to hold 2nd in a run that I thought was meritorious. Maps to just sit on the back of the leader here from gate 1 for McGruddy who always gets them out really well, and from there I think she is going to be really hard to beat 3rd up and deliver Kirsten Melis her 1st winner.

1.5 Units WIN

Race 2 – 3:55PM AMELIA PARK LODGE PLATE (1200m)

5. Sniparoochy – 1. Heavenly Waters – 2. Ex Sport Man – 6. God’s Dream

Sniparoochy

Not huge on 2yos, but have a huge opinion of this particular 2yo off the back of its debut domination. Trialled like a serious racehorse before its debut in very slick time before stepping out in admittedly a weak 4 horse field in Bunbury over the 1100m, where Brown just clicked her up on the turn and she absolutely spaced them under a hold on the line. The performance rated very well in comparison to other 2yo figures so far this season, and map wise although she is drawn a bit further out in 7 here, she’s got really good gate speed and confident she can land in front or at worst breeze outside leader and from there, it’s going to take a seriously good one to be beating her. Have marked well and truly in the red, so the $2.10 available is well worth a significant wager.

5 Units WIN

Race 3 – 4:25PM CROWN TOWERS PLATE (1600m)

1. La Farola – 2. Chili Is Hot – 6. Tambora – 7. Free Solo

La Farola

Keen to play around the short priced favourite here and think La Farola gets really well in again up to the mile. Sat up close to the speed last start in a pretty chaotic race over the 1400m and was able to reel off the fastest L600/400/200 of the race regardless which suggests the rise to the mile shouldn’t be an issue. Expecting an aggressive Parnham to boot her up from the wide draw and try sit her outside leader (likely Tambora) in the breeze and from there I think it’ll be a really good contest but I want to be with Parnham, who has the wood over Pike of late and much stronger form to her name.

2.75 Units WIN

Chili Is Hot

Have been following Chili Is Hot this prep and feel obliged to give her one more chance up to a distance I think will suit her down to the ground 3rd up. Came out of that same La Farola race last start and wasn’t able to steer clear of the chaos, affected by the riderless horse and Saving Memphis when shuffled right back from her original settling position to last, where she was really squeezed tight between runners and not a lot went right. Really liked the way she hit the line at the business end and think the mile could be the right trip for her to sprint home hard from off the speed.

1.25 Units WIN

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Race 4 – 4:55PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1000m)

1. Cuballing – 13. Wilchino – 6. Tinto Belle – 2. City Circle

Two horse race here in Cuballing and Wilchino

Cuballing

At the prices, have to be with Cuballing here. Was an ugly run 1st up last prep when something just wasn’t right (blew heavily in betting pre race and was a shot duck on the turn) before a much better performance 2nd up, box seated from the draw in a much stronger race than this, didn’t get really get clear air until passing the 200m and pushed Tajmali to the line when missing the bob. In his 1st prep he belted a field on debut that was produced 2 very handy horses since and then stepped to CL3 at his 2nd start and won again in a race which also contained a number of subsequent winners, which you really don’t see horses do too often. The lead up trial for this was soft and liked the way he hit the line, maps to get a gun run on the back of the leader from barrier 1 and think he is going to be really hard to hold out with the economical run in transit.

2 Units WIN

Wilchino was a superb 1st up win in a very high rating maiden, with 2nd from that maiden coming out since and belting them midweek stacking up the form. The problem is the draw and the speed drawn underneath. I think the horse is very good, but over the 1000m at Ascot to jump from barrier 12 with an abundance of speed drawn underneath you it is arguably one of the toughest asks in racing.

Race 5 – 5:25PM EASINGWOLD STAKES (1400m)

7. Luke’s Gold – 6. Son Of A God – 3. Dig Deep – 2. Abdicator

Race 6 – 5:55PM KIRIN MEGUMI HANDICAP (1400m)

7. Last Of The Line – 9. Sassy Trader – 8. Solaia – 6. Comfort Me

Insane race! Very open but really excited to see the return of Last Of The Line who I think just has tremendous upside as a race horse. Is still very lightly raced and has come back even better than we have seen him as per his piece of trial work the other day. Waltzed up to a really talented one and walked past, powered through the line and did it easy in the fastest time of the morning. Looks utterly primed and although no units for a number of reasons (1st up 1400m, very deep race, awkward map from gate 10), very keen to see him got around and potentially (hopefully) storm over the top of them down the outside.

Race 7 – 6:25PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1600m)

1. Our Idyll – 11. Regal Magic – 2. Beat The Bro – 8. What About Moses

Our Idyll

Horse is flying, finds an ideal map, a weaker race and gets the services of Pike back on. Showed in the Grandstand Cup the heavy track bias influenced lead all the way win at Bunbury was no fluke, coming with a barnstorming finish to win the Grandstand Cup before playing 2nd fiddle last start to a 3yo with some very smart form to her name. Gets Pike back on here, finds a map where she can take the drop just in behind the speed in the box seat and for me just brings the strongest formlines into the weakest race she has seen since her CL3 win down at Bunbury. Goes very well, and goes very close.

1 Unit WIN

Race 8 – 6:55PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (1200m)

8. Mood Swings – 4. Dew West – 6. Downforce – 9. Beat The Bell

Mood Swings

Buttering up, as I don’t think the map is as bad as it seems. That photo still hurts 1st up but he did run into a really good one in Leica Jaguar who is evidently flying at this current point in time and is a distance specialist, and he was at a trip shorter than his peak. Barrier 12 looks sticky for him, but when you break it down, there really isn’t a lot of genuine early speed engaged underneath him. Turner can fire him out here and land him in the breeze outside Excellent Dream I think, he’s got a huge rating over the 1200m when he defeated Bright Diamond and Puckapyunal last prep and think he can make amends here 2nd up with the right run up to a much more suitable trip.

2 Units WIN

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