Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Saturday 7th November

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Another fine Saturday for racing at Ascot this weekend with hopefully a few more staff rostered on than they had Tuesday. The rail goes out the 8m with the South Westerly in play which usually tends to favour those running on from off the speed. Chance of a few showers on the day but the track should stay a Good 4 throughout the day regardless.

Our WA Tipping Results Results: +20.33 Units (since 01/07/2020)

Race 1 – 12:19PM CROSSMAN MEMORIAL PLATE (1100m)

3. American Choice – 2. Sassy Trader – 6. Time Scale – 5. Shock Result

Race 2 – 12:59PM TABTOUCH-BETTER YOUR BET PLATE (1100m)

11. Liwa – 4. Lucky In The West – 6. Galaxy Cat – 2. Hear Me Sing

Race 3 – 1:39PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (2200m)

2. British Bessy – 6. Aragain – 1. Playing Marika – 8. Treasured Crown

British Bessy

Has come back really well. Hit the line really hard 1st up over the mile in a blanket finish from well back before stepping up to 1800m 7 days ago and was again, really good. Sustained a long run when pulled out of the running line by Kennedy at the 600m and easily accounted for the rest of the field bar potential star Truly Great which should prove to be really strong form. Gets out to the peak staying trip here for the first time this prep (which 3 of her 4 wins have come at) and gets Kennedy off for the form jock of the state Chris Parnham which is a huge tick and should just camp midfield with some cover and be finishing off really hard, hard to beat on the quick back up.

1.2 Units WIN

Aragain

Really good form at her 2 runs at the staying trip so far this prep with a 2nd behind Bonneville Black when she was flying and a last start 2nd behind Vintage Stock where she was held up for a fair way at the top of the straight before really letting down through the line and just missing the bob. Not usually one to get involved in the staying contests but at the $7.50 on offer, she gets McGruddy on and maps to get a lovely run just in behind the speed and should be every chance. Price is overs for me even considering the marginal step up in grade which also gives her 3.5kgs of weight relief.

0.8 Units WIN

Treasured Crown belted a field of donkeys over the 1800m last time out and steps up to the 2200m here for the first time in what is actually quite a deep staying field. Loses Ramoly for CJP which is a handy change up but at the price impossible to entertain given he is coming up against some seasoned stayers and is only still lightly raced. You’d also think Parnham would have been offered the ride for Bob also and instead has taken British Bessy?

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Race 4 – 2:25PM CROWN SPORTS BAR HANDICAP (1600m)

7. Tollman – 11. Western Pride – 9. Naughty By Nature – 4. Bad Wolf

Race 5 – 3:04PM KIRIN MEGUMI HANDICAP (1800m)

4. Midnight Blue – 6. Notorious One – 14. Miss Marietta – 1. Ouqba Ted

Midnight Blue

Runs have been hard to miss so far this prep at unsuitable trips and had no right to finish where he did last start behind the fav here Notorious One when ducking back to the inside from the rear and picking up lengths late off the winner to run 4th. The step up to 1800m here suits down to the ground and gets a 2.5kg weight swing on the favourite. Laqdar is the only question mark I have, but I hope he can settle him down a little closer than he has been from gate 5 here and if he finds some cover and is able to peel into it not too far off them, think he profiles better for this race than the favourite who is far too short and is going to be really hard to hold out 3rd up.

1 Unit WIN

Race 6 – 3:40PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1400m)

1. Rebel Knight – 14. Angelic Miss – 13. Invictus Domini – 12. Approach

Race 7 – 4:15PM FAIRETHA STAKES (1400m)

10. Kallaroo – 13. Western Empire – 1. Dom To Shoot – 3. Em Tee Aye

Kallaroo can run a race here at a price as he finally gets out to what I think is his trip. Was a good thing licked last start at Northam behind Power and Passion despite that runner coming from a similar spot in running, he really rocketed through the line from well back in the field when he finally saw some air on a day where the inside 2 lanes gave you an extra 4-5L and it was very difficult to make any significant ground. The stable is the form stable of the state at the moment and although he will need some luck from the soft draw where he likely finds himself 3 back the fence, if the splits come he is going to be making his presence felt I feel at a very big price for a horse that will lap up the 1400m here.

Western Empire is another that is capable of bobbing up at a price here. Was plunged in betting on debut on the same day at Northam Kallaroo went around where if you weren’t in the first 2 in running on the inside pad you could not win. It may say he was beaten 4L. But he went back to near last from the wide draw and was still able to run home into 3rd, running the fastest L400/200m splits of the entire meeting on debut which is impressive even for a Peters debutant, but it also means to me he has a touch of quality about him. Parnham has hopped off Kallaroo here to take the ride for Bob and feel he could be absolutely flying down the middle with the south westerly on his back late.

Dom To Shoot is one I absolutely have time for, has been handling himself with aplomb in some very solid 66+ contests against the older horses and has chalked up a huge win and a somewhat unlucky 2nd at his 2 starts in the grade. Gets back to his own age here and is incredibly well weighted for doing so, rated clear on-topper and even though I think the track will suit those running on down the middle, the map just deters me a fraction to dive in at the $3.00? All directions point towards there being a 3 wide line so if Pontiff can settle him down in that moving line he is going to be very hard to beat but more than likely has to circle a field that includes some talented types who he will be spotting lengths on the corner from the wide draw.

Race 8 – 4:55PM WAROA – LEE STEERE STAKES (1400m)

5. Platoon – 8. Laverrod – 10. Kay Cee – 4. Free Trade

Race 9 – 5:30PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1100m)

9. Elite Street – 11. Boomtastic – 4. Battle Storm – 5. Cliffs Of Comfort

Really keen to get involved here, but betting plays TBA, one I feel would be silly locking in now without seeing how the track plays on the day, especially towards the back end. Will update accordingly.

Elite Street

Unreal 1st up performance that I cannot look past where I actually had something on thanks to the great man Tommy Johnston who was super keen on it. Raced 3 wide no cover from a sticky map and just exploded )despite what most would call a torrid run) at the 200m to win really softly on the line in a field of few slouches. They absolutely smashed the clock there and if he is able to put in a similarly dynamic performance here, which I think he can, he will be winning again and potentially put his name up in lights as a live Winterbottom chance. The map is again a little sticky I feel however but nothing he can’t overcome, if Parnham is aggressive early he could almost land in the 1-1 but risks being caught 3 deep again, or he snags and settles him a couple of pairs back from where he was last time around. Regardless, I still think he wins, but just want to see how the track is playing by the end of the day before locking anything in. Clear on-top.

3 Units WIN

Boomtastic was massive 1st up in that same form race. Drew widest, made to work early to get across before breezing outside a well-mustered Condor Heroes on a very hot speed. They ran serious time and she stuck on super to still run 2nd absorbing every bit of that ripping speed they set. Chloe has options from the draw here, could try burn across and be super aggressive and cross CoC but think she will just come across and take the drop in behind that runner and Baraki and get the gun run behind the speed. Also gets a 3kg weight swing on the fav here. No early play but a potential bet if the track is favouring those closer to the speed.

Battle Storm’s return was as expected, a flashing light run. Was entitled to hit the line as hard as he did off the speed set but was still an encouraging run all the same given it was his 2nd run in 16 months. My queries are again the map and having to circle this very deep field most likely from last, while also being 2nd up after a hot 1st up run off a long break. If the track is heavily favouring those running on down the middle has to be considered but just another watch for me today, building up to a big run though, peaks Winterbottom day perhaps?

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