Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Saturday 19th December

5 years ago - Sportingbase

The rail goes out to the 6m for the first time all season here. Track to be a Good 4 with 20-30kmph southerlys which is practically a side breeze that shouldn’t have too much impact on race pattern throughout the day.

WA Service Results: -0.52 Units (Since 01/07/2020)
VIC Service Results: +22.39 Units (Since 20/06/2020)
Best Bets Results: +24.6 Units (Since 25/07/2020)
Essential Punters Results: +36 Units (Since 27/10/20)
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Race 1 – 12:07PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM MAIDEN (1000m)

5. Universal Pleasure – 7. Wilchino – 3. Midnight Hour – 1. Ginger Knight

2 horse maiden to begin proceedings

Universal Pleasure

Was really taken by her most recent trial with an inexperienced rider in the saddle who hasn’t ridden in a race as of yet. Well held throughout and with very little urging really pricked the ears up and surged through the line late, pretty smart piece of work. Horse has so far in his career had a knack of finding 1 or 2 better (and has burnt me before) so wary, but think she’s come back a much better horse this time around off that piece of work. Maps to sit on the back of Wilchino, gets in really well with the claim for Ramoly on the 53kg minimum who will get his cult position on the rail in the run. At the price differential, I’m happy to oppose the fav and have something on here.

1 Unit WIN

Wilchino is undoubtedly a talented horse for Danny Morton who he has had to be very patient with, since her last race was 15 months ago. Trialled the house down with one of the more impressive pieces of work you will see in the lead-up to that last run before disappointing as an even money elect at Northam although pulled up injured so can forgive. The most recent trial was super, but a horse that has clearly had its issues and is 1st up off a 15 month spell and you are expected to take a price in the red after it has already missed a planned midweek run this prep? Have to try get it beat, should be able to lead from 4 here and given the talent she has displayed previously clearly wouldn’t surprise if she’s far too good for them but there are a fair few red flags.

Race 2 – 12:47PM BYRON BAY PREMIUM LAGER PLATE (1100m)

4. Policiere – 3. Flying Missile – 1. Ultimate Command – 5. Pixie Chix

Race 3 – 1:27PM SCHWEPPES PLATE (1000m)

1. Madam Torio – 2. All Day Session – 3. Keep Your Feet – 6. Shock Result

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Race 4 – 2:07PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1600m)

5. Tradensia – 2. Baby Blues – 12. Solaia – 1. Aberdeen Queen

Really competitive, tough little race here

Tradensia I thought the performance in the Grandstand Cup was a massive run. Sat up and absorbed a very fast tempo, raced 3 wide without cover from the 600 and was still there at the finish when the swoopers were entitled to get involved. Gets out to the mile 3rd up here, gets Kyra back on who has a perfect record on her (2/2), maps to likely lead this field up with not a great deal of any other early tactical speed engaged and should prove really hard to run down. On-top for the sake of it, nice each way gamble.

Baby Blues looks well and truly over the odds at $41 with some bookmakers. Improves sharply from 1st to 2nd up, where 1st up got right back to the tail after being vetted at the gates, covered extra distance in the run and Harvey just had no intention of even riding her out to the line. Maps to get a much cushier run closer to the speed from barrier 5 here and really wouldn’t surprise bobbing up at a massive price.

Aberdeen Queen ran well in the Grandstand Cup from the draw but essentially was on the back of Our Idyll approaching the turn before popping off, with Our Idyll clearly outsprinting her in the straight? Did cover a fair bit of extra ground in the race albeit with cover and gets a 2kg weight swing on that runner here but the map is still awkward unless they try find a spot forward of midfield and get some luck from 8. Not overly enthused but a nice price, I have marked $6.50.

Solaia brings the 3yo feature form lines in and probably lands outside leader from gate 10 here which brings her right into this. Her last start effort in the Lee Steerem where she travelled into it beautifully, took Western Empire and was just beaten by a better one was super. On the minimum against the older horses here is a great set-up, I personally just can’t get her as short as $3.80, given she’s had quite an arduous prep for a 3 year old and this quite clearly isn’t what they’ve been peaking her for. No real knocks from me though, price thing.

Dark Mission will no doubt get the support of the punters with Pike on-board in the cerise and white, but cannot get near here as a $3.50 favourite. 1200m up to the mile 2nd up against some much stiffer opposition than what she faced 1st up with some extra weight on her back, have to take her on.

Race 5 – 2:47PM TED VAN HEEMST STAKES (2100m)

1. Trap For Fools – 2. Truly Great – 4. Platoon – 8. Paddy’s Shadow

Race 6 – 3:25PM CROWN SPORTS BAR HANDICAP (2200m)

4. Em Tee Aye – 1. Midnight Blue – 3. Adornment – 5. British Bessy

Race 7 – 4:00PM AGENT FRESH – STARSTRUCK CLASSIC (1600m)

1. Dance Music – 10. Naughty By Nature – 3. Chantrea – 8. Serenity Bay

Really good race for the mares this.

Dance Music with the lack of speed engaged here and with Lonsdale Lady missing kicks badly at the moment, may just by default find herself at the top here from gats 2 for Brad Parnham. Brings genuine G1 form into this race with her last start 3rd behind G1 winner Kementari and G1 placed Celebrity Queen. She wasn’t suited at all under those weight for age conditions and to drop back sharply in grade here, into a mares set weights and penalties race it’s beautifully set up for her. She gets in so well at the weights and won’t find a cushier run in transit here. The gut buster she put in in the Railway clearly didn’t take the wind out of her sails and given she is going to be lengths in front of her dangers on cornering, I think she will prove very hard to run past.

2 Units WIN

Going to have another spec here on Naughty By Nature, who’s run in the Jungle Dawn was more than unlucky enough to be much better than a $12 chance here. Pretty stiff by the stewards to not have anything mentioned in the report on this runner from that race, who was squeezed up between horses from on straightening and blatantly held up for a run when she had to be restrained by Hall passing the 150m, who swung her off heels and she picked up to hit the line really well in what was essentially a blanket finish. The map isn’t exactly ideal from gate 9 but I’m hoping the swoopers can be getting involved by this stage of the day which would bring her right into this if she already isn’t, especially out to the mile which she will no doubt appreciate. Reunited with CJP a positive.

0.3 Units WIN

Chantrea is the best horse in the race and a deserving favourite off the back of the 1st up run in the Jungle Dawn, was taken to the fence by Pike from the wide draw, where he looked to move off at the top of the straight, was squeezed, made to find a rails run back to the inside and just missed up the fence. Clearly the rise to the mile here is ideal 2nd up, off the back of the race fastest L600/400/200 splits at the 1400m, but the map is again the issue for me. More than likely finds herself 3 back the fence again at best here and needing luck in the straight, with $3.00 on the short side for me here.

Race 8 – 4:40PM THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS WA BLACK DIAMOND (1200m)

2. Cryptic Love – 1. Miss Frost – 13. Native Chimes – 14. Solid Azza

Giving one at big odds a chance here.

Cryptic Love for me, if the swoopers are capable of getting involved at this stage of the day, is overs at $16. The horse just doesn’t appreciate being stuck on the inside of other horses, which in saying that the run in the Jungle Mist really wasn’t that all that bad. O’Donnell took the fence route with her and never really got the chance to get into her as he should’ve. When you pair that with the fact that this horse only ever goes for Paul Harvey, who jumps back on here, it just ticks another box. Barrier 13 for her, with the amount of speed drawn underneath and engaged in this race, is probably the best draw she could have asked for, keeps her out of trouble and able to peel out into open air and have the last crack at them. Has a devastating turn of foot on her day when she gets the right run and race shape, and if the middle of the track is the place to be late in the day, I would be keen to have something on at the current price available. Bit of a one one pod “maddie”

0.3 Units EACH WAY

Race 9 – 5:15PM PIKESAYSTHANKSWA HANDICAP (1400m)

4. Lorentinio – 8. Resortman – 2. Mankind – 6. Bad Wolf

Another race where I am giving a couple at big odds a big chance.

Can’t see any reason why Lorentinio can’t go back to back here with Rails Ramoly in the saddle. Did walk them along and stave them off 1st up early in the day when it was difficult to make ground, but went in there underdone and would have taken stacks of improvement out of that run coming into this assignment. Gets in super at the weights with the claim for Ramoly to be carrying 1.5kgs less in the same grade after a win over the track/trip and maps to either lead or just take the drop in on the back of Sophie’s Song who likely fires across from out wide. If the track isn’t favouring those running on late in the day, double figure odds looks an outstanding each way price for this runner who gets a better race shape, less weight and is fitter for the 1st up win. 1×3.

0.5 Units WIN/1.5 Units PLACE

Think Mankind gets in really well in this 72+ for Ballantyne. Has been racing in much higher company for some time now and with the claim for Hefel gets into this as an 82 rater with just 56.5kgs. Had a torrid time of it 4 deep no cover the trip in the Winterbottom and has had a little 3 week spell to sharpen him up. Should get a lovely run in transit from gate 5, potentially even in the 1-1 and looks over the odds at the current price of $15.

If Bad Wolf can buck his trend of missing kicks then he is right in this too and is overs at $19. Is racing in great form with his starts just really letting him down of late. Last start came out of that same Lorentinio race when he didn’t jump and lost 2L according to the stewards (although I think it was a couple more), on jumping. Still managed to run 3rd there when hitting the line really nicely and if he can take up a spot from the gate with a clean step, he looks right in this.

Resortman is on the quick back-up off what was no less a heartbreaking result last week. Steps 1100-1400m on a 7 day turn around which struggles to enthuse me despite the likely cushy run he will get in transit. Last prep actually raced off the 7 day back, was heavily commissioned in betting but got flogged by Indian Pacific and Levitate, which despite looking handy form, was only able to hold out a stayer the likes of Marocchino by .2 of a length. Have him marked favourite, obviously, but at $2.60-$2.70 he’s a fair way under my price.

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