Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Saturday 14th November

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Ripping Saturday card at the Scot’. The rail goes out the 9m and with rain forecast for Friday and Saturday, we are likely looking at a soft 6/7 track that they haven’t watered in the lead-up. 35-40km westerlys are gonna be smacking those who lead in the face and making life traditionally more difficult for those up on speed, with cover going to be essential throughout the day.

Our WA Tipping Results Results: +31.53 Units (since 01/07/2020)

Race 1 – 12:29PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES HEAT 3 (1400m)

11. Western Rhythm – 5. Morgs Freeman – 3. Glamour Packed – 4. Mood Goddess

Western Rhythm

When Western Rhythm first went up $5.50 about this morning I was keen to get involved but that has trimmed up a fair bit now. A horrid draw meant she was made to settle last on the fence with Banjo having to weave her a path between horses, getting through late to almost pinch it 1st up. Thought it was a really good fresh effort and up to 1400m here gets a big tick from me. Conditions look to be favouring those with cover running on and if Banjo can just get him in the moving line, he’s going yo be hard to beat but in a pretty even market just a tad short now, anything $5 upwards I will be getting involved.

1 Unit WIN

Race 2 – 1:09PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1200m)

4. Kitgum – 2. Schoolhouse Rock – 6. Recharger – 8. Beau Zoom

Kitgum

Really like how Kitgum’s going. Ran a big race 1st up behind Comes A Time and Bragwell, with Comes A Time since running well up in grade and Bragwell running a nice race at Listed level in the Fairetha. The run 1st up, where he settled right back in the field in a 3 wide line and really hit the line hard, had plenty of merit given it was tough to make ground on the day with 8/9 winners coming from the first 2 pairs in running. Draws much more favourably in 5 here for a returning to form Paul Roberts, who had a city winner last Saturday in Tollman. Runs a big race again here, like his chances and when he hits form, he generally holds it.

1.2 Units WIN

Schoolhouse Rock

Going to have a saver on the grey here Schoolhouse Rock. Was a big win last time out in a CL3 over the track/trip when flying home from the rear when not a lot went right in the run but he was still too good, although this is a step up from that. Draws much more favourably and can sit much closer to the speed here and think the is stable going well with another winner midweek. Think he’s up to the level here and is over my price.

0.8 Units WIN

Race 3 – 1:49PM TONY FAVAZZO 30YRS @ PERTH RACING (1000m)

2. Eeyore Wayz – 1. Mum’s My Hero – 11. Express Time – 5. Resortman

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Race 4 – 2:28PM CROWN TOWERS HANDICAP (1400m)

9. Cambist – 4. Dig Deep – 11. She’s Alight – 5. Luke’s Gold

Race 5 – 3:08PM R.J. PETERS STAKES (1500m)

8. True Attraction – 9. Truly Great – 5. Money Maher – 7. The Fugazi

True Attraction

Sit and sprint which is what this contest is likely going to be should suit this guy down to the ground, and at the price, happy to put him on top of the other vying cerise and white elect. Had no right to finish as close as he did last start over the 1400m when still detached last and 6-7 lengths off them rounding heels at the 200m, closing off in an 11.2 last 200m to only finish less than 2L off the eventual winner. Much smaller field this time around means he will be able to sit much closer to them with the sort of race shape, and with the lack of speed engaged, I’ve got CJP getting him on the back of the stablemate in running, from where he can peel him to the outside and let him finish off with his powerful sprint with the howling westerly on his back. 1500m yes and feel he brings stronger form than Truly Great, whose sprint, my gut feel tells me, isn’t as dynamic, especially when dropping back in trip.

1.5 Units WIN

Truly Great is flying but coming back in trip from the 1800m to the 1500m here, when they could’ve gone Ascot Gold Cup, just doesn’t make much sense to me at all when his best trip is clearly going to be over further, maybe going Railway instead perhaps? Beaten not a whole lot at his 2 starts thus far and with the drop back in trip, and my gut feeling he doesn’t possess as dynamic a turn of foot as the stablemate, just makes me want to play around him as an even money chance in the market currently? If he’s on a Perth Cup or a Kingston Town path, I just can’t get near him here at the price even though I have a huge opinion of the horse.

Race 6 – 3:45PM SEACORP – ASCOT GOLD CUP (1800m)

6. Friaresque – 9. Mystery Miss – 2. Too Close The Sun – 12. Royal Command

Friaresque

I got involved early and was gearing up to post him as a $23 chance last night but this morning they’ve gone whack and he’s trimmed up to $12, still somehow over my price. Was a huge run in the Northam Cup. Settled right back at the tail on a day where its been well documented you couldn’t win if you weren’t on-speed, came down the wrong part of the track and grabbed lengths off the leaders late for 4th, with Push To Pass, the other horse that came down that part of the track just in behind it that day, since coming out and winning the York Cup albeit a weaker race than this, but the form ties in from the meeting. Should get a lovely run closer to the speed here from gate 5 at a much more suited trip for an in-form hoop Brad Parnham who, seemingly to my eye, has hopped off the favourite Too Close The Sun for this horse? You can’t tell me Lindsey would rather have Joey ride than BP. Know he has had a reputation as being a bit of a nonny, but at over $20 odds (now gone), he is going to go mighty close and am happy to find out.

0.5 Units WIN

Mystery Miss is another I had down as a 0.5 unit play last night before this morning they’ve wound her in from $17 to $9.50?? Fark me, been some serious money around for this race. Senior jockey horse finally gets the in-form senior jockey for the 1st time all prep and was impressed with the way she was able to finish off last start behind Truly Great when there was no intent to win. Drops right down in the weights to 54kgs and she’s actually never won with more than 55.5 on her back, showing how she is not a weight carrier either. Finally draws a gate, can sit closer here without dropping out to the tail and at a big price (not so much anymore) for CP in a race that won’t be run at a hell for leather clip, she’s a chance here at a price with a few of the stars aligning here for her for the first time this prep, classy horse on her day. Have her marked $13 which she’s now under.

Too Close The Sun was a massive return in the Asian Beau, sat leaders back in the run, ran past Red Can Man and was only beaten a lip by a desperate Inspirational Girl who is favourite for the Railway Stakes at a very unsuitable trip. Red Can Man has since franked that form by running 2nd in the G2 Lee Steere last weekend. He showed signs he has come back an even better horse than we’ve previously seen this prep now that he’s back home in WA. Up in distance to the 1800m suits the staying type and he maps to get a cushy run on or just in behind the speed which although isn’t likely where you wanna be with the breeze on the day, won’t have as much of an impact in the middle distance/staying contests. $2.50 is getting on the short side of things so I’m taking on here but I feel he will still go mighty close, best horse in the race for mine but just may not get conditions to suit here? Loves it soft. Can’t knock.

Race 7 – 4:20PM W.A. CHAMPION FILLIES STAKES (1600m)

4. Magical Dream – 8. Solaia – 2. Snickerdoodledandy – 3. Kissonallforcheeks

Champion Fillies, great race.

The stablemate pair for the Morton stable quinella’d the lead-up race the Burgess Queen in Snickerdoodledandy and Kissonallforcheeks.

Magical Dream

Was a big run from the back in the Burgess Queen but just can’t seem to draw an alley. She made tough work of it for Jade last time around when wanting to lay-in up the straight and showed that the horse is still a bit green, but far out she’s got a serious turn of foot when asked. Drops back again from 11 here, up to the mile I feel will suit her down to the ground and she will be the one who tries to rocket over the top of them late with the big westerly on her back, which is only going to assist her chances in doing so.

1.5 Units WIN

Solaia

For me, Solaia is going to get the absolute perfect run of the race here and is going to give her every conceivable. Was caught on the worst part of the track in the Belgravia when Lucy took her back to the rail while the winners came down the outside, still hitting the line strongly for 4th. This has been her target since that electric midweek win when we were with her, and from gate 6 she is going to get the dream run in transit, off the fence this time just in behind the speed stalking. Up to the mile I think she is going to lap up, she’s over my price and think she is going to run very well.

0.5 Units WIN

Kissonallforcheeks looks to be the natural leader here from gate 2 in a race devoid of any early tactical speed, and although the price differential between it and the stablemate I feel is too great, I feel conditions on the day are going to make it very difficult for leaders and its gonna be an uphill battle for her to win here.

Snickerdoodledandy is a serious racehorse, and a deserving favourite, but cannot entertain at $2.50. The map from gate 3 spells trouble, and traffic for me, and can’t see how she doesn’t get caught back on the fence, from where she might find a bit of trouble finding some clear air, especially for a horse that needs to get wound up before the corner.

Race 8 – 4:57PM COLONEL REEVES STAKES (1100m)

6. Stageman – 14. Celebrity Queen – 5. Flirtini – 9. Indian Pacific

Stageman

This just looks his race doesn’t it? Maybe I’m bias after last start. Up to 1100m, 35-40km westerly, hot speed. Was a moral beaten last start in the Prince Of Wales when missing the start, and even then with another 100m would’ve cut them down. Finds a race with hot tempo up front with Indian Pacific and Condor Heroes, a draw where CJP can slide him back with cover in that running line, and conditions that favour him launching at them once they fan down the middle. Gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Indian Pacific from the Crawford, where with another 100m he would’ve shot straight past him. Very keen and a great price in the market with the depth of this race, think he’s going just a bit better than Celebrity Queen too, on the path to the Winterbottom where he should be a very live chance.

2 Units WIN

Celebrity Queen is another favoured by the conditions who is going to be having her say at the business end while getting in on the minimum and getting a favourable draw. Second pick.

Indian Pacific leads them up here and is going to be in it for a long way but I’m just not sure he can hold these out with a big fat westerly smacking him in the face most of the way round. Would be a Herculean effort if he does, not for me here. Took him to the last few strides to get past Mervyn last time out, not sure how well that stacks up even though 1100m will suit him better here.