Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Perth Cup Day Saturday 2nd January

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Perth Cup Day 2021 is upon us. Looks to be a hot 33 degree day with the rail returning to the true position. The winds forecast for the day look to be capable of playing a major role here with quite strong south easterlys throughout the afternoon which traditionally heavily favours those runners up on speed and especially early in the day where it seems to be hard enough as is to be making ground at Ascot this season, heading in with a mindset that you want to be leaning towards those who race closer to the pace given the conditions.

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Race 1 – 12:24PM CROWN PERTH PLATE (1000m)

2. Storm Whisper – 7. Dynamic Ruler – 11. Vranyo – 1. Policiere

1000m scamper for 2 year olds to start the day which doesn’t overly enthuse.

Storm Whisper could not have been more impressive visually on debut after trialing impressively. Although visually impressive, the time actually wasn’t all that flash and don’t think you’ll find any other horses from that race winning many races in their 2yo season. Draws well to more than likely take up the running from barrier 2 but at $2.30 won’t be getting involved.

Dynamic Ruler the best of the unraced brigade, but can’t be backing 2yos from wide gates.

No interest whatsoever, didn’t even price up or map the race.

Race 2 – 1:04PM TABTOUCHBETTER YOUR BET PLATE (1100m)

2. Bumper Humper – 4. Our Danni – 6. Ghost Who Walks – 3. Keep Your Feet

Another race I’m unenthusiastic about, this time over the 1100m for the 3yos.

The only runner here that has come up over my price is Bumper Humper for Dion Luciani. Thought the last trial over the 1000m at Ascot when jumping to the front, controlling the tempo and doing it quite softly through the line in slick time was a super piece of work. You don’t put the 3kg claimer on here to sit midfield so anticipating they are really aggressive early with Hefel in the saddle and try to find the front, which is more than likely going to be the place to be, especially early in the day. If she can find the front, with just the 54.5kgs on her back with fresh legs, she looks like she could take some running down at a nice price. Missed the $9.50 this morning but marked $4.60 so the current $7 on offer is still overs.

Verdict: Bumper Humper EW, but not overly keen to dive in.

Race 3 – 1:44PM SEPPELT THE DRIVES HANDICAP (1600m)

3. Ration Aly – 9. Run D’Affaire Run – 2. The Fugazi – 4. Dark Mission

Ration Aly is the current favourite and is having her first crack at the mile here after being somewhat luckless so far this prep. Last start against much tougher opposition rattled home in the race fastest L800/600/400/200, which suggests she will lap up the extra 200m. I think if she’s clean away she can almost land 1-1 here or at worst 3 back 1 out and from there looks hard to hold out here. Just a question as to who gets the ride but early indications seem to be the Pont will pick it up.

2 Units WIN

If the conditions play as expected and are favouring those on-speed, I am giving Run D’Affaire Run a huge chance at a massive price. Steps up sharply in grade here, but drops massively in the weights and gets a really suitable map. Last start led them up at Bunbury before giving away to Goku and Beat The Bro, who has since stepped up in grade and won very stylishly. In a race with no natural leader, should be able to jump to the front in very favourable front-running conditions from barrier 4 for the Fish, drops 6kgs at the weights, gets to the mile from which he is 1 win from 1 attempt. At over $5.00 the place, I think he is going to give you a sight out in front and is easily my “maddy” bet of the day.

0.5 Units EACH WAY

Dark Mission just gets too far back and likely settles last or somewhere near last from gate 10.

The Fugazi just simply doesn’t run out the mile and I’m amazed it is priced under $6.

Verdict: Ration Aly 2 Units WIN/Run D’Affaire Run 0.5 Units EW

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Race 4 – 2:24PM ASCEND SALES TROPHIES HANDICAP (1000m)

9. Kramden – 6. Giant Leap – 3. Speeding Comet – 5. Leica Jaguar

1000m race with an incredibly abundance of early speed.

Now, let’s talk about Kramden. I’ve got Kramden mapped to sit outside leader here and if he can land there, I think he can give this an almighty shake at $23.00. 1st up was far from disgraced in much tougher company when encountering a flying Ziebell. Derrick really wasn’t all that aggressive and to be honest didn’t look like they were even trying to win? Settled behind the front trio with Ziebell just putting too much of a space on them but loved the way he picked up and run through the line after being held up and taken out across heels at the 250 and again at the 150. With the claim for Hefel who should be far more aggressive here, gets in at the featherweight 51kgs and is going to run a big race for mine in a more forward settling position

0.25 Units EACH WAY

Giant Leap draws the outside alley for the cerise and white off the back of a seriously impressive 1000m trial. Looked to be easily headed approaching the line under wraps for Pike before really pricking the ears up once Pike got to work and surging through the line to take it out. Likely settles last here and the 1000m proves a tad too sharp for him but think he is primed for a much better prep than what he has dished up thus far. Can’t get involved personally but wouldn’t surprise if he launches over the top of them for the Wiz late.

Condor Heroes drops out of a G1 to a 66+ but is missing kick after kick at the moment and from the gate, with the amount of genuine early speed drawn underneath is the biggest false fav ever. Can’t win.

Leica Jaguar’s hat trick of wins has to end somewhere, and from likely 3 or 4 back the fence in transit with barrier 1 being probably the worst gate he could have been dealt. The $3.90 is unders.

Verdict: Kramden 0.25 Units EACH WAY

Race 5 – 3:00PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1200m)

2. Tycoon Storm – 3. State Attorney – 6. Platinum Bullet – 10. Weaponson

Really unenthusiastic about this race and the resulting market.

No value around here but Tycoon Storm on-top. Is dropping back from the 1400 to the 1200m but is the class horse of the race for mine. Put to the bed the 1200m is too sharp for her feel I had in the Jungle Mist when she really should have won the race when badly held up for a crack at them from on straightening until only getting clear air with 120m to go. Settled in the same spot but was unable to get the job done when every conceivable in the Jungle Dawn but has since had a little 1 month freshen for this which should keep her sharp. Marked a $4.80 favourite and currently sits around that quote so no real value or inclination to get involved but on-topper for the sake of it.

State Attorney the one I could be inclined to get invested in if its price really get out late on Betfair but other then that an easy no bet race for me.

Verdict: Tycoon Storm, but won’t be getting involved unless some ridic prices come up on the fair late. Will be watching State Attorney’s price in-particularly with a keen eye.

Race 6 – 3:35PM MRS MACS-LA TRICE CLASSIC (1800m)

6. Naughty By Nature – 2. Chantrea – 3. She’s Alight – 4. Lonsdale Lady

Interesting race this one with a market that is essentially mirroring mine at the minute.

Chantrea is the one most suited by the rise in trip after probably not running up to market expectations last start in the Starstruck over the mile when 4th behind Dance Music. May not have been suited having to make her run up the fence that day perhaps? Nevertheless, didn’t finish off the race as one would have expected her too regardless from a lovely run in transit on the back of the leader and eventual winner. Not sure she will find as comfy a spot this time around and likely lands 3 back the fence or potentially even 4 if Aberdeen Queen is really aggressive from gate 1. $3.00 is too short to get involved but have marked favourite, upside good up to the 1800m.

Loved the run of Naughty By Nature in the Starstruck who is flying for Jason Miller. Drew wide that day, was shuffled out of the moving line with cover at the 1000m but just kept coming at them to only just miss when she was never entitled to do so. The step up to 1800m ticks a lot of boxes, as does the cushier draw from gate 3, and if they can run on by this stage of the day and she can get some clear air, looks to be the bet for mine in the race, going super.

She’s Alight also going super at the minute, just have the feel 1800m may be a bridge too far given she looked to be paddling a tad at the end of the mile in the Starstruck when offered the plum run in transit. If I’m wrong and she runs the trip, $9.00 looks overs given the strength of her last 2 runs and the fact she is a winner, and as they say, winner’s win?

Dance Music at $3.50 is gross unders up to the 1800m although will be very suited by conditions on the day. McNeil going on an interesting change but as we know, rates them out in front as well as any jock in Aus. (Now a late out)

If Lonsdale Lady can jump with them and hold out Dance Music for the lead, the 1800m will be no issue for her to run out and she is worth a spec at $20 some corps, going better than it seems and just needs to correct some of her racing manners to be running a big race.

Verdict: Not much meat on the bone in the market, but Naughty By Nature EW if they can make any ground at this stage of the day.

Race 7 – 4:15PM FURPHY-SUMMER SCORCHER (1000m)

9. Mervyn – 8. Don’t Fuss – 6. Indian Pacific – 5. Essential Spice

Another 1000m scamper with speed, speed, speed.

The last time Mervyn and Indian Pacific met over 1000m, Indian Pacific just got over the top in the Crawford in the final strides. This time, in what should be a somewhat mirror of a map to that day, with Mervyn bowling along up top with Indian Pacific just in behind stalking, Mervyn gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour on that runner. Races well fresh, maps to lead on a day where conditions look to favour those up on speed, $5.50 vs $2.30-$2.40. I know where I’ll be looking to get involved. Just hold your breath for the last 50m.

1 Unit WIN

Of the backmarkers, Don’t Fuss is overs at $18. Much better suited sitting off a hot tempo and exploding at the 1000m journey, 2 starts back spotted a flying Ziebell 5kgs when 2.5L adrift in 2nd, I think that form will very much hold up. McNeil goes on, gets back and should launch late with just the 54kgs on his back. Again, will be interested to see who picks up the ride with McNeil a late out.

0.25 Units WIN

Essential Spice is another I could play late if it gets out to double figures with Pike back in the saddle. Comes here out of a G1 where she was seriously unlucky to not have finished closer to them when held up along the rail virtually untested the entire straight. Pike is worth lengths from Warwick and back to the 1000m, her pet trip, she is going to have fresh legs after a little 1 month break and will be charging home.

Verdict: Mervyn to hold on with the light weight 1 Unit WIN. Don’t Fuss 0.25 Units WIN and Essential Spice worth a spec late if she gets out they can make ground late in the day.

Race 8 – 4:50PM TABTOUCH-PERTH CUP (2400m)

4. Neufbosc – 1. Truly Great – 12. Juicing Carrots – 2. Trap For Fools

Not the most inspiring edition, but it’s still the Perth Cup.

Would be counterproductive to rattle off why Truly Great can win, but at the current price with the 60kgs and the less than ideal draw, despite clearly being the most brilliant horse in the race, in my nature to try and get it beat, so here’s some others who I think can potentially, with the crucial swing in the weights in their favour, make a race of it.

Neufbosc is absolutely flying for the Parnham yard. Was a victim of circumstances in the GA Towton when the rest of the field seemingly had a sleep while Rawiller was wide awake on Trap For Fools, with Neufbosc scorching the turf late into 2nd before last start taking out the ATA over the 2200m in what can only be called an arrogant win when never even looked like losing. Maps to just about find the 1-1 from 4 in behind Trap For Fools and is no question marks at the 2400m. Will be in-front of the favourite on straightening and won’t be easy to get past.

Trap For Fools should walk to the front from 15 and the trip is no issue. If the track is favouring those in-front still at this stage of the day there is no reason Rawiller doesn’t get them off the bit chasing really early and tries to make it as genuine a staying contest as he can.

Juicing Carrots is better than a $71 chance and the horse is flying. From barrier 1 can take up a prominent position in the run, stays, and was unlucky not to have finishing closer to Neufbosc in the ATA. Far from the worst bet to run a drum at $12.

Princess Jenni is also a chance, not one for mine, but is a G1 winner over 2000m and has recently been racing really well over this kind of trip with more weight. Gets an ideal draw in 2 and will have plenty of admirers as the Vic raider. Now just a wonder who gets the ride?

Verdict: No units from me, but Neufbosc on-top with Juicing Carrots to run a drum also another bet I’d be happy to spec on. Truly Great may just blow them out of the water.

Race 9 – 5:26PM MUMM CHAMPAGNE HANDICAP (2200m)

4. Mr Delegator – 7. Shoes Of Ekraar – 1. Ouqba Ted – 3. Treasured Crown

Not the most exciting end to the day with a 2200m staying contest.

Mr Delegator goes on-top but is under marked price at the current point in time. Should roll to the top here from the wide gate and love the booking of Rawiller to control things. Had to work to get to the front last start in a strong form reference for this, a much weaker race, and was only grabbed by the chasing brigade really late in that race when just giving out. May update with a bet in regards to how the track is playing late and the fluctuating price, but staying out for the time being.

Units TBA

If Shoes Of Ekraar can stay, then with the 53kgs from the gate for Hefel can take up a prominent position just in behind the speed and run a really good race. Has shown promise he may eventually get over a trip previously and think the $26 on offer is overs.

Ouqba Ted (king) and Treasured Crown next best.

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