Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 15th May
5 years ago - Sportingbase
Roma Cup day at Ascot brings about the end of another Ascot season. The track is absolutely cooked, its tired, the jockeys aren’t happy and everyone is looking forward to getting to Belmont for a change. The track being in such worn condition means its almost impossible to tell how it is going to play tomorrow, it will take a watch on early to understand any pattern or which lanes it is favouring on the day. My gut feel is it’s going to heavily favour lanes 1-4 in running but we will just have to wait and see before locking in confirmed plays.
Race 1 – 11:54PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
7. Playing Red – 6. Snippy Miss – 1. Pink N Gray – 2. Dew West
Race 2 – 12:34PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1400 METRES)
3. Cold Shizzle – 2. Rommel’s Command – 6. Buzzoom – 5. Pale Rider
Race 3 – 1:14PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Son Son – 5. Mini Winnie – 9. Billy Ray – 10. Wednesday
Son Son
Looks a really nice race for Son Son. 3rd up, fit now and back to his pet 1400m trip. Didn’t appreciate the heavy track last start and now gets back on-top of the ground and finds a race where he should be able to park in the breeze at worst off a very moderate tempo and get them chasing a fair way from home. Should be too strong for these, especially if the inside pad is playing well early doors.
3 Units WIN
Mini Winnie
Don’t want to lose on Mini Winnie here. Racing in super form, goes for Mitch Pateman and maps to get the gun run on the back of Son Son. The tempo should be more genuine here, wasn’t suited to the crawl, sit, sprint event she went around in last start and is definitely worth saving your doe.
0.7 Units WIN
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Race 4 – 1:54PM 2021 AUSTRALIAN RACING HALL OF FAME INDUCTEES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
1. That’s Funny Az – 5. Mrs Browns Boy – 6. Bruce Almighty – 7. War God
Race 5 – 2:33PM WORLD CLASS BREAST CANCER RESEARCH HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
8. Graceful Girl – 3. Mystical View – 9. Miss Livinia – 2. Queen Brown
Graceful Girl
Just looks one of Bob’s progressive fillies that will go through the grades. Question marks surrounding the strength of her opposition last prep, but the strength of her last 2 wins before being tipped out were super. The recent trial with the apprentice on-board was a lovely piece of work, really loved the way she dug in and exploded approaching the line once asked for an effort. Pike in the saddle, will find the right back to follow to bring her into the race, think its a question of which cerise and white runner wins. Think she looks a very nice horse.
2.7 Units WIN
Mystical View
Mystical View is a huge talent. Has put in 2 super fresh runs, and although the issue is that Pike prefers the other cerise and white runner here, Laqdar is far from a worrying jock to be on and is in super form himself. Defeated Amasenus fresh last prep before running 2nd to Magical Dream in the Belgravia, hitting the line alongside Watch Me Dance, Gemma’s Son and Snickerdoodledandy. Those are class fillies, and although she will get back here, if they can run on, is a clear 2nd pick for me in a strong 3yo race and is definitely capable of making her presence felt.
0.8 Units WIN
Race 6 – 3:15PM SOMETHING PINK KALGOORLIE HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
2. Long Beach – 7. Acromantula – 6. This’ll Testya – 4. Panzdown
Long Beach
Comes here fresh off 2 trials, in which both pieces of work were just tune-ups and not asked for any effort. 1st up last prep won in this grade defeating Indian Pacific and Nerodio in what was a huge performance. Terrific stats, 3/3 at the distance, 2/3 fresh, and gets a race where they will be going like the clappers out in front with plenty of speed influences. Horse has got super form across the board, will get back but will be finishing powerfully if Laqdar can keep him within striking distance and the middle of the track isn’t a disadvantage.
1 Unit WIN
Acromantula
If he can find the rail out in front for whatever reason, this race could be all over (now a much easier assignment given We’ve Got Dreams has come out). Bombproof on-speed horse that has run his opposition into the ground at his last two in 3YO handicaps. Gets up against the older horses now and finds a race with a lot more pressure. Can now likely cross to the rail and find the top with the key scratching, like him a lot as a horse, just think he needs to go to another level here, which he is definitely capable of, with $2.60 skinny to find out.
Race 7 – 3:50PM PROFESSOR ARLENE CHAN HANDICAP (2200 METRES)
7. Secret Pearl – 1. Come Right Back – 3. Black Shadow – 2. Final Chill
Race 8 – 4:25PM BREAST CANCER RESEARCH CENTRE OF WA – ROMA CUP (1200 METRES)
3. Elite Street – 6. Cup Night – 7. Massimo – 15. Flirtini
Great race to bet late.
Elite Street
G1 Winterbottom winner comes here off a 57 day freshen since his last run over in Melbourne in the G1 Moir. Just never looked the same horse over there and backing now that he’s home and settled back in that Danny Morton will have him absolutely flying. He is drawn for the most beautiful of suck runs here in behind what looks to be a very genuine speed, and if back on his home deck (where he has only been defeated once) he can recapture his Winterbottom form, he will be winning this.
1.5 Units WIN
Cup Night
Pat Carbery is well known to ride this horse like no other, and never panicked when back last in the Northam Stakes, giving him a 10/10 to get him home there, quite comfortably in the end too. Bernie Miller even said that heading there he was probably a touch underdone and would be better for it despite not being there to make up the numbers, with being primed for the Roma Cup more of a target and the extra 100m definitely more to his liking also. The draw isn’t terrible for a horse with his racing pattern, but he will need the middle of the track to be a kind on the day to be a chance of winning from there. Definitely can win with the right run/conditions.
0.6 Units WIN
Massimo
Really liked the run of big ‘Mass 1st up in the Northam Stakes at an unsuitable trip. Drew out, found himself caught wide and worse than midfield but was super tough with the way he stuck on. The extra distance and fitness is a tick, as is the very favourable map he finds drawn in 3. Can either be aggressive early and potentially even find the top or (the more likely scenario) park himself just in behind speed coming from out wide in the box-seat. If the inside pad is playing favourably, with his toughness he is going to be every chance with all of his dangers behind him.
0.9 Units WIN
Race 9 – 5:00PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
1. Nerodio – 9. Special Choice – 4. Moschard – 5. Captain Kink
Staking Plan
Race 3 Son Son 3 Units WIN/Mini Winnie 0.7 Units WIN
Race 5 Graceful Girl 2.7 Units WIN/Mystical View 0.8 Units WIN
Race 6 Long Beach 1 Unit WIN
Race 8 Elite Street 1.5 Units WIN/Massimo 0.9 Units WIN/Cup Night 0.6 Units WIN
11.2 Units Staked.
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