NFL Tips

2025 NFL Week 3 Preview: Our Expert Tips

5 months ago - Sportingbase

The NFL season is heating up, and we’re here once again with our weekly betting breakdowns to help you find an edge. From injury updates to roster shake-ups and early ATS trends, we’ve got you covered with insights on the biggest matchups of the week. Let’s dive into our latest previews and see where the value lies.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games, so make sure to check back.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

The Colts head into this matchup as 4-point road favorites, but there’s value in backing the Titans to cover and even pull off the upset. Tennessee enters the game without right tackle JC Latham, who missed all week; backups Oli Udoh and John Ojukwu have rotated in, but the protection is a downgrade. Also down are DT T’Vondre Sweat (out) and safety Kevin Winston (doubtful). The Colts, meanwhile, don’t have anyone officially ruled out yet — rookie TE Tyler Warren is questionable (toe), cornerback Charvarius Ward is in concussion protocol, though both are trying to suit up.

Trend-wise, teams getting +3 to +5 at home tend to cover at above-average rates in AFC South divisional matchups. Tennessee’s youngsters have flashed. If their secondary holds up and the Colts can’t generate consistent pressure up front, the underdog could keep it tight. Given the Titans’ home crowd and the Colts’ thin injury concerns, an upset isn’t out of reach.

Pick: Titans +4

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Titans +5 @ -110 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 units ($200) Titans +4 @ 1.92 Bet With Unibet Here

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Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

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Houston flies into Jacksonville just off a rough 0-2 start, but there’s reason to believe they’ll keep this one tight. The Texans will be nearly full strength for the first time this season—WRs Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios are cleared from hamstring injuries, and center Jake Andrews is back after missing time. Those returns stabilize the offense and give QB C.J. Stroud more weapons. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is dealing with offensive line uncertainty: Wyatt Milum will be out with knee issues, and guard Ezra Cleveland is questionable with an ankle injury. WR Brian Thomas Jr. is good to go, but the passing game may be less sharp if protection breaks down.

Trend-wise, divisional games with tight spreads often favor the underdog, especially when they’ve just added contributors back. Given Houston’s improved roster health and the Jags’ interior concerns, Texans look poised not just to cover +1.5 at Jacksonville—they might steal a road win.

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Texans +1 @ -105 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 units ($200) Texans +1.5 @ 1.91 Bet With Unibet Here

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

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The Steelers hit the road in Foxborough as 2-point favorites, but sharp money should lean Patriots +2. New England enters with Christian Gonzalez questionable after a hamstring injury; defensive end Keion White and fullback Westover are also banged up but less impactful in coverage situations. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is missing key defensive starters: CB Joey Porter Jr., safety DeShon Elliott, EDGE Alex Highsmith, and interior OL Max Scharping (out for season). These absences weaken both their pass rush and secondary.

Patriots’ defensive coordinator Terrell Williams will miss the game again; inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr takes over play-calling on D. Despite early tackling issues (especially missed tackles in LB corps), the Patriots have shown fight in close games at home. Historical trends favor home underdogs in tight spreads—teams getting +2 on their home field cover at a higher than expected rate this early in the season. Given Steelers’ injury drag and New England’s improved effort, this could easily stay within a field goal.

Pick: Patriots +2

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Patriots +1 @ Ev Bet With BetUS Here
1 units ($100) Patriots Moneyline @ +110 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 unit ($200) Patriots +2 @ 1.90 Bet With Unibet Here
1 unit ($100) Patriots Moneyline @ 2.05 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

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Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

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The Packers roll into Cleveland as heavy favorites (around −7.5), but there’s betting value leaning toward the Browns +7.5. Green Bay has suffered several key injuries: WR Jayden Reed is out after surgeries on his clavicle and foot, TE Tucker Kraft is questionable (knee), and RT Zach Tom (oblique) might sit. These absences could blunt their big-play potential.

Cleveland is also banged up: DT Mike Hall Jr. is out, with guard Joel Bitonio (back), RT Jack Conklin (elbow), and WR/returner DeAndre Carter (concussion) listed as questionable. But they’ve shown grit in close losses, and at home they’ll push tempo, especially if the Packers’ offense is missing key pieces. Trendwise, Browns have been 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games, but getting +7.5 makes this a strong hedge versus an undermanned Packers squad.

Bottom line: Despite their struggles, Cleveland has enough to keep this within a touchdown plus. I really like betting a team when there public perception is very low and they’re taking on a fan favorite.

Pick: Browns +7.5

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Browns +7.5 @ -120 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 unit ($200) Browns +7.5 @ 1.91 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

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Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

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The Chargers step into this matchup as slight favourites and everything points to value in backing them to cover. Los Angeles will be missing edge rusher Khalil Mack due to a dislocated elbow expected to sideline him for several weeks; his absence weakens their pass rush considerably. On offense, however, they’re still a live wire: Keenan Allen remains active and productive, and QB Justin Herbert should exploit a Broncos defense shorthanded at linebacker.

Denver enters the game without tight end Evan Engram (back) and linebacker Dre Greenlaw (quad), both ruled out this week; their defensive depth—especially in the middle—looks thin. Chargers have also ruled out TE Will Dissly and safety Elijah Molden. Trends favor home teams in divisional or regional matchups when the underdog is missing multiple starters. With Denver’s injuries piling up and LA’s offense clicking, Chargers are in prime position to not just win but cover on home turf.

Pick: Chargers −2.5