2025 NFL Week 18 Preview: Our Expert Tips
2 months ago - Sportingbase
The final week of the regular season is upon us. We will see teams resting starters and other weird things so we will be a little cautious this week.
I will likely be adding some more picks before the games, so make sure to check
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
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This Week 18 NFC West showdown doubles as a de-facto division championship and No. 1 seed decider, and while the 49ers are at home, there’s value backing the Seahawks to win outright. Seattle enters with key playmaker Rashid Shaheed cleared from concussion protocol and active for Saturday’s matchup, bolstering an explosive vertical threat group after missing time earlier. Their roster also saw Derick Hall return from suspension, adding depth to the linebacker corps and helping shore up pressure lanes. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have handled adversity well all season, topping 13 wins and demonstrating they can win tight games on the road.
San Francisco’s week hasn’t been perfect; they’ve dealt with short week prep after a late Sunday night win, and a handful of starters are trending questionable — including Trent Williams (hamstring), George Kittle (ankle), and Ricky Pearsall (knee/ankle) — leaving their offense potentially limited in crucial blocking and playmaking roles. The 49ers’ short week also raises concerns about freshness and execution in critical moments.
From an ATS perspective, rivalry games with playoff stakes often come down to situational football, and road teams with momentum and healthier key contributors cover — and win — more often than expected. If Seattle claims early field position and forces mistakes, they’re in position to pull the outright upset.
Pick: Seahawks ML
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Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
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Dallas heads to MetLife as the road favourite, and the matchup still points toward the Cowboys getting the job done outright. The Cowboys are expected to have Dak Prescott starting, giving the offense continuity and leadership in a game where execution should decide the outcome. While Dallas is dealing with some depth concerns — including injuries along the defensive front and at running back — their core offensive pieces remain intact, allowing them to lean on a controlled passing game and situational efficiency.
The Giants, meanwhile, are significantly thinner. New York enters the week with multiple starters ruled out on both sides of the ball, impacting their offensive flexibility and defensive coverage depth. Their passing attack has struggled to generate consistent explosive plays, and protection issues remain a concern against a Cowboys defense that thrives on pressure and turnovers. Even without full strength, Dallas’ defensive front and secondary are positioned to dictate tempo.
From a betting perspective, road favourites of under a touchdown in divisional matchups often outperform expectations when they hold the quarterback advantage and face an opponent missing key contributors. Dallas’ ability to win the field-position battle and capitalize on mistakes gives them a clear edge.
This sets up as a game where Dallas doesn’t need perfection — just clean execution and discipline — to walk away with a road win.
Pick: Cowboys ML (win outright)
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Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
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The Patriots host Miami in Week 18 with a double-digit spread (−11.5) that looks far from out of reach given recent roster and performance trends. New England enters off a 13-3 season and AFC East title, riding momentum behind Drake Maye, who has surged into MVP contention with elite passing efficiency, multiple big games, and strong MVP odds heading into this finale. Maye’s recent dominant performances keep the Patriots’ offense humming as they eye top playoff seeding.
New England’s injury report showed a handful of impact absences on Friday — including linebackers Harold Landry and Robert Spillane, and linemen Jared Wilson and Khyiris Tonga — but the team also activated both LT Will Campbell and DT Milton Williams from IR this week, strengthening the trenches against Miami. Those additions could be decisive in controlling line of scrimmage play on both sides of the ball.
The Dolphins enter with significant injuries and rotation questions of their own. They’ve placed tight end Darren Waller on IR, and several Dolphins playmakers — including RB De’Von Achane and WR Jaylen Waddle — missed recent practice sessions or are otherwise limited. Miami’s quarterback picture is unsettled behind a rookie, and overall offensive continuity is in question.
From a betting angle, heavy home favorites with healthy high-end quarterbacks and reinforcements in key positions cover extra points at an elevated rate — particularly in division rivalry revenge spots. If New England controls possession early and forces Miami into predictable down-and-distance situations, the Pats should eat up clock and cover this number.
Pick: Patriots −11.5
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Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
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Sunday’s matchup at SoFi Stadium sees the Rams installed as healthy favourites (−8.5), and the betting setup points toward them covering that number. Los Angeles made a key roster boost this week by activating veteran CB Roger McCreary off IR, adding experience and stability to a secondary that’s been patching holes late this season. They also promoted offensive lineman AJ Arcuri and safety Tanner Ingle to provide depth behind starters. While the Rams’ injury report still lists a handful of questionables — including Davante Adams (hamstring), Blake Corum (ankle), Alaric Jackson (knee), Omar Speights (ankle), and Kyren Williams (ankle) — early practice participation suggests many will play. At the same time, a couple of starters (Kevin Dotson and Josh Wallace) are already ruled out, but overall L.A. still boasts more complete offensive personnel than Arizona in this spot.
The Cardinals continue to be without Marvin Harrison Jr. (foot/heel), ending his season, and they remain thin on both lines. Their pass protection issues and lack of reliable downfield weapons make sustaining long drives difficult, especially against a Rams rush plan that can dictate tempo.
On the broader NFL landscape, the MVP race has shifted this week toward Drake Maye over Matthew Stafford, putting additional narrative pressure on Stafford to finish strong — but that doesn’t negate the Rams’ talent advantage here.
Trend-wise, heavy home favourites with playoff positioning and healthier skill groups cover at a strong clip late in the season. Expect the Rams to impose tempo early and keep this comfortably within the number.
Pick: Rams −8.5
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Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Eagles travel to Buffalo for a marquee Week 17 matchup, and while the Bills are narrow favorites, the Eagles have strong value to win outright. Philadelphia’s injury report has taken a few hits — right tackle Lane Johnson and linebacker Nakobe Dean are ruled out — but the Eagles are otherwise trending healthy at key spots. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter returned to full practice, and star WR A.J. Brown is cleared to play after a minor procedure, restoring elite playmaking ability for Jalen Hurts’ offense. Meanwhile, guard Landon Dickerson, who missed practice time due to illness, is back on the field, stabilizing protection up front.
For Buffalo, quarterback Josh Allen was limited in early practice with a foot issue but is now cleared to play, giving the Bills their most important offensive piece. However, the Bills are missing multiple defensive contributors — including safety Jordan Poyer and defensive tackles DaQuan Jones and Jordan Phillips — weakening run stop and interior pass rush stability. Tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are questionable, which could blunt the Bills’ red-zone versatility.
From an ATS perspective, favorites under 3 points with key defensive absences have struggled to cover against balanced offensive attacks. If the Eagles can protect Hurts and win situational football — especially third downs and red-zone efficiency — they have every chance to steal this primetime road game.
Pick: Eagles ML
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