NFL Tips

2025 NFL Week 1 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

6 months ago - Sportingbase

We are back! The new NFL season is underway and we are back with our expert tips that have hopefully served you well in the past.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games so make sure to check back.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

The New England Patriots open the season at Gillette Stadium as 2.5‑point favorites, led by sophomore QB Drake Maye and bolstered by the high‑profile addition of Stefon Diggs. Diggs, returning from a torn ACL, has passed his physical, avoided any week one injury designation and is expected to play – potentially close to a full snap count – giving Maye a premier target on the perimeter. New coach Mike Vrabel’s revamped offense, anchored by veterans like Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, and a strengthened offensive line, appears sharper and more cohesive. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson may take some time to make the running back position his own, but I expect some explosive plays from him when he does see the field.

Defensively, the Patriots’ front seven remains stout, featuring players like Christian Barmore and Harold Landry III, poised to pressure Geno Smith. Speaking of Smith, the Raiders’ signal‑caller recently secured a two‑year extension worth up to $75 million (with incentives to $85.5 million), stabilizing their offense but undercutting draft‑day urgency. Still, his chemistry with Las Vegas’s supporting cast remains largely unproven heading into this opener. It will be great to see Ashton Jeanty on an NFL field though.

Bottom line: Patriots’ explosive offense, veteran presence, and home-field edge position them to comfortably cover.

Pick: Patriots –2.5

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Patriots -2.5 @ -115 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 units ($200) Patriots -2.5 @ 1.88 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

The Dolphins open the season as 1.5-point underdogs in Indianapolis, but they bring plenty of upside to this matchup. Tua Tagovailoa enters a pivotal year with Tyreek Hill expected to play despite minor oblique and calf concerns, giving Miami its trademark explosive vertical threat. Darren Waller’s status remains questionable as he works back from a hip issue, but if available, he adds another red-zone weapon to Mike McDaniel’s balanced attack. On defense, the Dolphins bolstered their secondary by bringing back Minkah Fitzpatrick, bringing depth and physicality to a unit tasked with slowing Indy’s young receivers.

The Colts counter with Daniel Jones under center, looking to settle into Shane Steichen’s system. While Indianapolis boasts a strong run game and a healthy roster, Miami’s speed advantage and ability to stretch the field could tilt momentum quickly.

Bottom line: The Dolphins aren’t just live to cover – they have the tools to steal a road win outright.

Pick: Dolphins +1 (and ML )

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Dolphins Moneyline @ -110 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 units ($200) Dolphins +1 @ 1.89 Bet With Unibet Here
1 unit ($100) Dolphins moneyline @ 1.96 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

The Saints host the Cardinals as 6.5-point underdogs, but signs point to value on the plus side. Injury woes hit New Orleans early. Edge rusher Chase Young (calf) and guard Trevor Penning (toe) are both ruled out for Week 1 and center Will Clapp is already on IR, raising questions up front. Yet the return of CB Alontae Taylor strengthens the back end, providing stability against Kyler Murray’s talents.

Meanwhile, Arizona enters relatively healthy and backed by a historic Week 1 line; they’re the biggest road favorites in opening-week history, according to FanDuel.

Saints coach Kellen Moore brings a fresh offensive identity, and home-field edge could keep this tighter than expected. In a low-scoring dome tilt, New Orleans looks poised to keep it within one possession.

Bottom line: Strong ATS trends, home-field setting, and defensive flashes suggest New Orleans covers and has the potential for an early upset.

Pick: Saints +6.5

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Saints +6.5 @ -105 Bet With BetUS Here
1 units ($100) Saints Moneyline @ +235 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 unit ($200) Saints +6.5 @ 1.90 Bet With Unibet Here
1 unit ($100) Saints Moneyline @ 3.30 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

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Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

Denver enters Week 1 as an 8.5-point favorite, the largest line on the slate, but the Titans have reasons to believe they can cover. The Broncos are already dealing with defensive injuries. Several key contributors, including Malcolm Roach and Dre Greenlaw, are sidelined, which could thin their front seven in a matchup where conditioning matters. Sean Payton’s group carries high expectations, but early-season execution often lags.

For Tennessee, the Cam Ward era begins. The rookie QB showed poise in preseason action and benefits from strong protection with center Lloyd Cushenberry returning healthy. He’ll have a full complement of weapons and a defense buoyed by the return of L’Jarius Sneed and the presence of rookie DT T’Vondre Sweat. With a balanced roster and few health concerns, the Titans are positioned better than most Week 1 underdogs.

Bottom line: With Denver thin defensively and Ward supported by a healthy core, Tennessee has value to cover +8.5.

Pick: Titans +8.5

USA USER BETS

2 units ($200) Titans +9.5 @ -120 Bet With BetUS Here
1 units ($100) Titans Moneyline @ +345 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

2 unit ($200) Titans+8.5 @ 1.91 Bet With Unibet Here
1 unit ($100) Titans Moneyline @ 4.35 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets

Steelers travel to MetLife Stadium as 3-point favorites, but there’s value backing the Jets to keep this close. The marquee storyline: both quarterbacks are facing their former teams. Aaron Rodgers returns to New York, while Justin Fields takes the field against Pittsburgh. Each downplays the drama, but the stage is set for emotionally charged Week 1 action.

Jets debut new head coach Aaron Glenn, who brings an aggressive defensive identity and what should be an improved offence, even as rookie right tackle Armand Membou steps in following the season-ending biceps injury to Alijah Vera-Tucker.

Meanwhile, the Steelers own a revamped defense and offense anchored by veterans, but Rodgers’ timing with his new squad isn’t yet dialled in. Historically, home underdogs in season openers cover at an above-average rate – especially when quarterback narratives skew emotionally intense. In what promises to be a low-scoring, gritty opener, the Jets’ edge in familiarity and motivation gives them the ATS nod.

Pick: Jets +3

USA USER BETS