NFL

2021 NFL Week 5 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

4 years ago - Sportingbase

Another amazing weekend coming away with 5.37 units of profit to follow up on 7.96 in week three. Our premium picks have now given big profits in three of the four weeks. There is plenty still to come.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games so make sure to check back.

Season to date

Premium picks:

Profit/Loss: +9.48 units
ROI: +16%
Strike rate: 53%

Overall:

Profit/Loss: +3.76 units
ROI: +5%
Strike rate: 44%

New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons

The NFL heads to London once again and these two struggling teams meet. The Jets got their first win of the season against the Titans and they could make it two here. The Falcons offence has struggled so far and with Calvin Ridley not making the trip to London they are likely to struggle again. This game is unlikely to produce many fireworks so expect a low scoring game and I’d much rather take the team with the points in that sort of game.

1 unit Jets +3 1..80 with TopSport
2 units Jets/Falcons under 45 points 1.90 with TopSport

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New England Patriots @ Houston Texans

I should start out by saying the Texans are bad. Davis Mills is not very good. They have a mixed bag of mediocre running backs and some decent receivers. But New England come into this with huge problems themselves. They start on the offensive line where they will be without four players through either injury or COVID. Damien Harris is a trendy pick both in terms of his line and DFS but those missing players will hurt him a lot. Mac Jones looked better against the Buccaneers but he still struggles to get the ball downfield. The Patriots just do not have a powerful enough of an offence to be 8.5 point favourites over anybody right now.

2 units Texans +8.5 1.85 with TopSport
1 unit Texans moneyline 4.10 with TopSport
1 unit Mac Jones under 250.5 passing yards 1.88 with Ladbrokes
1 unit Damien Harris under 70.5 rushing yards 1.85 with Ladbrokes

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I am a massive Trevor Lawrence fan and he probably should have got his first win in the NFL last week, but he can fix that here against a Titans defence I am happy to bet against each and every week. Lawrence’s over/under is actually lower than Mac Jones’ in the Patriots game which just seems bizarre. Back him to have a big game on the way to his first professional win.

1 units Jaguars +4.5 1.81 with TopSport
1 unit Jaguars moneyline 2.74 with TopSport
1 unit Trevor Lawrence over 245.5 passing yards 1.88 with Ladbrokes
1 unit Trevor Lawrence 2+ touchdown passes 2.0 with Ladbrokes

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New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

A nice amount of this season’s success has been built on how strongly I feel about the Cowboys and we are going to go back there for at least one more week. The Cowboys have one of the best offences in the league with Dak Prescott and co but their defensive improvements have been the real boost. They get turnovers every week and that should continue against Daniel Jones who has an issue with keeping hold of the ball. Even with a fairly large spread I think the Cowboys can cover fairly easily.